Central Bank of Iran Puts Three-Quarter Growth at 11.9%

The Iranian economy grew 11.9% during the three quarters of the current Iranian year (started March 20, 2016), a Central Bank of Iran official said.

CBI’s Deputy Governor Peyman Qorbani also told reporters on Monday that without taking the oil sector into account, growth rate stands at 1.9%, Mehr News Agency reported.

The oil sector expanded 65.4%, thanks to ramped up crude production and increased exports following the lifting of sanctions.

Sanctions against Iran were removed on January 16, 2016, as part of the nuclear deal the country signed with world powers the previous year. In exchange, Iran agreed to scale back the scope of its nuclear program.

According to government data, Iran is now pumping more than 3.9 million bpd of crude oil and condensates, and the output is expected to reach the 4-mbpd mark in April, the level it used to ship before the tightening of sanctions.

Exports stand at around 2.8 million bpd. Production peaked at 4.2 million bpd for a short spell before international sanctions were tightened against Tehran in 2011 and 2012.

Iran is now the third-largest OPEC producer behind Saudi Arabia and Iraq, which pump around 10 million bpd and 4.5 million bpd respectively.

Qorbani noted that the sectors of agriculture, industries, mining and services grew by 4.2%, 5.8%, 0.2% and 2.4% respectively while construction saw a negative growth of 17.1% during the nine months.  

The CBI figures on Iran’s GDP growth for the three quarters came a few days after the Statistical Center of Iran released its own report for the corresponding period.

Both CBI and SCI release periodic reports on Iran’s macroeconomic data, which often differ from one another.

According to SCI, Iran’s economy during the nine-month period grew 7.2% including oil and 5% excluding it.

Industrial, agricultural and services sectors grew by 0.5%, 5.7% and 5.4% respectively, the SCI report showed.

The International Monetary Fund has projected in its latest report that Iran’s economic growth will stabilize at 4.5% over the medium-term, as the country’s recovery broadens.

Real GDP growth is expected to reach 6.6% in 2016-17 and to ease to 3.3% in 2017-18, as oil production remains close to the OPEC target, according to the report.