8% Growth Depends on Political Consensus
Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali Tayyebnia believes an 8% economic growth for the upcoming Iranian year (March 2017-18) is within reach, “if the political wrangling during presidential campaigns does not undermine national interests”.
Referring to the 7.4% economic growth reported by the Central Bank of Iran for the first half of the current Iranian year (March 20-Sept. 21, 2016), the minister said he no longer worries about adverse economic circumstances, IRNA reported.
The next presidential election in Iran will be held on May 19, 2017.
Hassan Rouhani won the last race in 2013, when he secured over 50% of the ballots and narrowly avoided a runoff. Iranian presidents are elected to a four-year tenure restricted to eight consecutive years.
According to the ministry’s estimates, Iran’s GDP is projected to grow by 6.2%, as inflation is expected to average 9.8% in the next Iranian year (March 2017-18).
Speaking to reporters earlier this month, Deputy Economy Minister Saeed Mirshojaeian said next year’s growth rate will heavily depend on oil price, which makes it difficult to make any predictions, adding that growth will be “sustainable” and diminish income inequality in the long run.
The economy recorded a whopping 7.4% growth, mainly due to ramped-up oil exports, as a result of the lifting of sanctions imposed over Iran’s nuclear program.
The GDP growth, excluding oil sector, amounted to 0.9%. The figure for Q1 stood at -0.9%, while Q2 growth without oil amounted to 2.6%.
The oil sector registered the highest increase in GDP in the period with a growth of 61.3%. A 55.4% and 67.2% growth in the oil sector was reached in the first and second quarters respectively.