Think Tank Downgrades Iran GDP Growth, Inflation Forecasts

Majlis Research Center has forecast a 3% economic growth and an 11.5% inflation rate for the next Iranian year (starting March 21).

Earlier, the research arm of the Iranian Parliament had forecast the GDP growth and inflation rate for the current fiscal to reach 4.1% and 10.5% respectively, IRNA reported.

The parliamentary think tank expects the agriculture sector to grow by 3.8%, oil sector by 3%, industrial sector by 5% and the services sector by 5.9% this year. The construction sector is expected to shrink by 8.3%.

The Central Bank of Iran has forecast an economic growth of at least 5% for the current Iranian year that ends on March 20, 2018.

Latest official statistics on Iran’s economic growth were published by the Statistical Center of Iran last month.

According to the SCI report, Iran’s economy grew by 5.6% in the first half of the current fiscal (March 21-Sept. 22) compared with last year’s corresponding period. The H1 growth was put at 6%, exclusive of oil production.

Agricultural production expanded by 0.9% while the industrial sector (comprising crude oil, natural gas and other mineral extractions, industrial production, energy and construction) grew by 4.4%. The services sector saw the highest growth of 7.2% during the period.

The IMF expects Iran’s real GDP growth to reach 4.2% in 2017-18, projecting it to be sustained or even rise toward 4.5% over the medium-term.

The World Bank, in its latest “Iran’s Economic Outlook” report, estimates a 3.6% GDP growth at constant market prices and 3.5% at constant factor prices for the Iranian economy in 2017. The estimates for 2018 and 2019 are at 4% and 4.3% at constant market prices and 3.9% and 4.1% at constant factor prices respectively.

And the United Nations, in its latest World Economic Situation Prospects, has forecast a 5.3% economic growth for Iran in 2017, noting that the growth is projected to settle at 5.1% and 5% over the next two years respectively.

According to the Central Bank of Iran’s latest report, the average goods and services Consumer Price Index for urban areas in the 12 months ending Dec. 21, which marks the end of the Iranian month of Azar, increased by 10% compared with last year’s corresponding period. The CBI had put the inflation rate for the preceding month of Aban, which ended on Nov. 21, at 9.9%.

The overall CPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 111.9 in Azar, indicating a 1.9% increase compared with the previous month. The index registered a year-on-year increase of 10% compared with the similar month of last year.

The CBI report came after the Statistical Center of Iran put Azar inflation at 8%.