After two years of stagflation, the economy grew 4.6 percent in the first quarter (March 21 - June, 21) of the current year compared to the same period last year, according to a report released by the Central Bank of Iran this week.
Primary data from the CBI's office for economic and statistical affairs shows that the country's gross domestic product (GDP) significantly increased to 480,491 billion rials in the first quarter from 459,252 billion rials in the same period last year. The economy shrank -4.1 percent in spring 2013.
After two years of stagflation, the economy grew 4.6 percent in the first quarter (March 21 - June, 21) of the current year compared to the same period last year, according to a report released by the Central Bank of Iran this week.
Primary data from the CBI’s office for economic and statistical affairs shows that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) significantly increased to 480,491 billion rials in the first quarter from 459,252 billion rials in the same period last year. The economy shrank -4.1 percent in spring 2013.
According to the data, Iran’s oil, industry, trade and hospitality, and services in financial and monetary institutes played a crucial role in the reported growth. The value added of each sector is reported to be 0.7 percent, 1.5 percent, 1.0 percent, and 0.6 percent respectively.
Growth Forecast
Iranian Officials have forecast a growth rate of 2 percent for the current year ending March 20, 2015. They have already announced 0.5 percent growth for spring, much lower than what CBI officials released this week.
Experts believe the recent data does not necessarily mean that the economy will keep the same pace in the following seasons. Pouya Jabal Ameli, an economist with the central bank, told Financial Tribune that the pace will slow down in cold seasons, “as industry and oil sectors already grew enough.” He added, “GDP growth will probably end up between 2 and 3 percent by the year’s end”
London-based Economist Intelligence Unit’s (EIU) released a report on September 22, forecasting Iran’s GDP to hit 1.7 percent in fiscal year 2014-15 (March 21-March 20), up from -1.9 percent last year.
Real GDP has contracted for a second year ending March 20 2014, declining by 1.9 percent according to a statement from the central bank. This followed a 6.8 percent contraction in real GDP in the year prior.
“The economy will recover slightly during the remainder of the forecast period, growing by an average of around 2.3percent, with oil export volumes edging up,” the report said.
Between March 2001 and March 2012, real GDP growth averaged 5.3 percent a year, the report said, forecasting that although investors will have to contend with a challenging business environment in the coming year, a comprehensive nuclear deal can make the real GDP growth rate reasonable at the same level,” possibly with a lag of 12 to 18 months.”
