In less than 30 years, the aging population of Iran is expected to account for more than 30% of all Iranians, according to a report by Majlis Research Center.
The “Aging in Iran: Prospects and Challenges” report estimates that the ratio of the elderly to the total population, which stood at 10% in the fiscal 2019-2020, will reach 20% in the fiscal 2042-43 and hit 32.1% or about 35 million people by the fiscal 2051-52.
Excerpts from the report are translated as follows:
Old Age Definitions
Old age is usually referred to as the last period of the life cycle and for that reason, it is actually impossible to determine a specific limit for it, because firstly, the physical and mental process of old age differs among people; an elderly person in one country may not be considered old in another country. Secondly, the starting period of old age in any country has a direct relationship with life expectancy in that country.
In 2000, for example, the life expectancy at birth in Japan was 81 years while it was 67 years in Iraq.
In this report, the basis of what constitutes the elderly is the definition provided by the Statistical Center of Iran. The 14th chapter of its Population and Housing Census considers people of ages 60 and above as elderly, while some other census have set the threshold at 65 years.
According to the World Health Organization, the world’s elderly population will reach 2.1 billion by 2050. Although the Iranian society is currently facing “the demographic window of opportunity”, forecasts show that Iran’ population is rapidly moving toward old age.
Iran’s elderly population grew from a negative rate of 17% in the fiscal 1976-77 to 28% in the fiscal 2016-17. Until the fiscal 2006-07, the number of elderly men was more than elderly women, but in the fiscal 2016-17, the number of elderly women exceeded that of elderly men, mainly because the life expectancy of women is higher than that of men.
Challenges Ahead
One of the most important challenges of old age population in Iran is the rise in healthcare costs.
In the past decades, Iran faced the economic burden of contagious and infectious diseases, and the activities of the health sector were focused on prevention, treatment and rehabilitation of complications caused by such diseases.
With the emergence of the epidemiological transition, the economic burden of diseases has been directed toward non-communicable and chronic diseases, but still the third wave is approaching, and soon the economic burden of diseases among the aging population and its complications will increase in Iran.
Considering the current 9.2 million elderly people in Iran, there is currently one bed for every 700 elderly people in the country. The figure in developed countries stands at one bed for every 18 elderly.
According to Article 29 of the Constitution: To benefit from social security with respect to retirement, unemployment, old age, disability, absence of a guardian and benefits related to accidents, health services and medical care and treatment, provided through insurance or other means, are accepted as a universal right. The government must provide the foregoing services and financial support for every individual citizen by using, in accordance with the law, the national revenues and funds obtained through public contributions.
Aging of the population in Iran, unlike in Western countries, happened before the development process, so possibly the solutions of those countries in this regard are not suitable for Iran, because those countries first went through the process of development and then faced old age; their welfare institutions had enough power to implement reforms in various stages of retirement in order to achieve a good quality old age. However, old age in Iran is considered an uninvited guest. Therefore, solutions pertinent to Iran’s conditions should be put on the agenda.
In social welfare policies, two categories of “protection umbrella” and “social safety net” are of great importance. The protection umbrella provides similar and equal social and citizenship services to all members of the society, both rich and poor. But the social safety net pays attention to groups that are in the most vulnerable and critical condition.
At present, the country’s welfare governance system does not have a comprehensive protection umbrella. It also lacks an effective safety net to optimize the protection for the target society. This has led to the instability and intermittent extension of social protection such that the rate of pension coverage for the elderly aged 60 and above in Iran is 45.4%. In fact, less than half of the Iranian elderly population have pension coverage.
In the future, the aging of the population will cause challenges for the country such as increase in healthcare costs, further elderly care infrastructure, instability of the welfare system, non-adaptation of the elderly to new technologies, reduction in the country’s economic growth and the rising dependence of the elderly.
Government intervention can strengthen the family budget by providing subsidies and regulating the market in order to meet the basic needs of life. Government intervention for social services, along with family support, can be formulated in the form of a multi-layered social security system. The layers of social security system are formed according to the social and economic structure and cover the social risks of poverty, such as old age, unemployment, disability, etc.
The rising number of the elderly in the country means an increase in the risk of impoverishment, therefore, the establishment of a multi-layered social security system with coverage of the risk of old age is one of the inevitable decisions. In general, while moving towards the realization of a dynamic society, plans should be made to have healthy elderly and meet their health and welfare needs.
