Planning the Unplannable

The least you expect to see in five-year development plans is attention to current conditions, international relations and technological advances, as well as political, cultural, social, demographic and attitudinal changes inside the country. 
However, what we have seen in actuality is the clumsy copying of each plan from the previous ones. It is as if every plan has been prepared in a vacuum, without paying attention to the achievements and failures of the old documents. In other words, we are facing a ritualistic procedure that must be followed as per the law, Jafar Kheirkhahan, an economist, prefaced an article for the Persian economic daily Donya-e-Eqtesad with this note. A translation of the text follows: 

World of Uncertainties

We are living in a world with ever-increasing uncertainties emerging from various events, such as the outbreak of Covid-19, the unknown consequences of global warming and climate change, conflicts between countries, transformation of democracies to autocracies, the disruption of supply chains, digital economy and the incredible power of artificial intelligence and humanoid robots. 
Under these disorders and perilous conditions, it is impossible to plan and predict the medium- and short-term outlooks. 
Add to these external conditions and exogenous factors, the growing weaknesses and flaws in bureaucracy in Iranian governments and the emergence of a gap between the people and the government. 
Our scientific centers and planning organizations are not equipped with appropriate analytical tools to understand and face such new phenomena. All this has led to a sharp decrease in adherence, coordination and cooperation among all the forces and factors inside and outside the government, which are vital for the realization of a plan’s goals.
The end result is transformation of plans to a list of wishes that can only ensure prosperity on paper. In reality, however, they are failing back-to-back and their grasp of ground realities and the preoccupations of private sector consumers and producers, and the necessary balance between the quantity and quality of government services is withering by the day. 
Another sad fact is the top-down nature of plans; if we fail to pay attention to the role of internal and human motivations, the implementation of plans will only be possible by using coercion or temporary monetary incentives. 

7th FYDP’s Refrain

The most frequent words in the seventh five-year development plan (during the fiscal 2023-28) are “it is required” and “they are required”, which appears on 121 pages (of the plan’s total number of 150 pages). 
These words are repeated between one and six times on each page and they refer to all agencies and organizations, as if is while built-in motivational structures are of utmost importance.
On the targeted annual economic growth rate of 8%, which is headlines all FYDPs, I should say that in recent decades, a broad consensus has been reached that the growth rates of investment and productivity are not exogenous variables, rather they are determined by political, social and economic environments, as well as historical factors. In fact, the institutions or the rules of the game and the guarantee of their implementation are the main determinants of the accumulation of human and physical capitals, or research and development, and ultimately economic development. Therefore, more complex and advanced forms of innovation that lead to increased productivity emerge in societies whose institutions encourage and support related activities. 
If governments seek to do something valuable, they should improve the business environment and support wealth creation. It is vital to create a competitive field with the possibility of winning or losing, an environment where a majority of people find a level playing field. Establishing institutions that act as protectors in the face of external pressure groups is also necessary. The main goal of the government should be to provide public goods that benefit everyone, i.e., the government needs to create a platform and provide opportunities for everyone, not a platform that allows only a certain group of people to win; that is synonymous with corruption. 

Role of Facilitator

The government should assume the role of facilitator; it needs to keep abreast of private sector and civil society developments, not stand against them. 
Every part of Iran has undiscovered potential that can be optimally used through decentralization of power, public-private partnership and cooperation-competition. Government structures should follow their main and inherent missions, i.e., to serve people in all forms and fields. But the existing organizational structures are rooted in the interests of directors, people in high places and political groups and circles; this has obfuscated goals and paralyzed the government. 
Therefore, changing the vision and mental underpinnings of directors and government employees is essential. Aligning the missions and duties of state agencies and organizations, as well as bolstering the motivational structure for people to act spontaneously so that better incentives lead to a better performance, is not an easy task and requires a detailed understanding of institutional economics. 

Economic Flexibility Should Be Emphasized

Those who are involved with planning, whether they like it or not, at times show characteristics of a know-it-all. 
Now add this feature to governments that feel obliged to interfere in people’s personal lives and private affairs for ideological reasons. Such policymakers are more willing than others to imagine human beings as passive beings or chess pieces that have no self-control and could be easily programmed and transformed, whereas in reality, these plans turn out to be counterproductive. 
Countries and economies do not act according to a detailed plan and with prior knowledge, especially vis-a-vis new technologies and innovations that affect everything. Flexibility and resilience of economies should be emphasized so that governments get ready to use opportunities and overcome threats. Perhaps in the near or distant future and with the development of artificial intelligence and big data, governments would be able to manage and regulate people’s lives, but nothing is certain so far. 
In the end, it is advisable to use the experiences of other countries and cultures by compiling models and precedents that can have many lessons for us. Even participating in a foreign and international exhibition can make us understand how fast the world is moving ahead and how much we can benefit from cooperation with other countries and their ideas and methods. 
Basically, if the feeling of false pride and self-interest does not overcome us, every shock, crisis and war could become an opportunity for us to learn, rectify and adjust. But sadly, few people learn from events, as most people usually resist learning.