During his recent visit to Washington to meet the officials of the International Monetary Fund, the Central Bank of Iran’s Governor Mohammad Reza Farzin spoke of a plan to reduce inflation to 30% by the end of the current Iranian year (March 2024).
Is it possible to achieve this goal under the current circumstances? The 30% inflation is likely only on certain conditions. It is possible for the economy to register 30% inflation if sanctions are removed, agreements produce desirable results, Iran’s foreign exchange reserves and oil income are restored and the economy does not experience an inflationary shock from a hike in energy or goods price in the current year. But the important point is that it will be tough for the policymaker to further reduce the inflation rate after the initial reduction.
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