Iran’s economy grew by 3% in the first half of the current Iranian year (March 21-Sept. 22) compared with the similar period of last year, the Central Bank of Iran said in a report released on Dec. 22.
Without taking into account crude oil production, the growth rate stands at 2.7%.
The groups categorized by the bank as “agriculture”, “petroleum”, “industries and mines”, and “services” saw a respective GDP growth rate of 1.1%, 6.6%, 3.8% and 2.6%.
The CBI report came after the Statistical Center of Iran said the economy grew by 3.3% during the same period compared with the similar period of last year.
SCI says GDP growth stood at 3.4%, excluding crude oil production.
A sectoral breakdown of GDP shows “agriculture” registered -2.2%, “industries and mines” 5% and “services” 2.6% in growth rates during the period under review.
The “industries and mines” group includes the subcategories of “crude oil and natural gas extraction”, “other mines”, “industry”, “energy” and “construction”, which saw respective growth rates of 3.2%, 0%, 4.9%, 12.9% and -1.6%, according to SCI.
SCI earlier put last Iranian year’s (March 2021-22) growth at 4.3%, saying the GDP saw a 3.5% rise without taking crude oil production into account and that the sectors of agriculture, industries and services experienced -3.7%, 6% and 4.5% growth respectively.
According to CBI, the economy grew by 4.4% in the fiscal 2020-21. It said the GDP growth stood at 3.9% without taking crude oil production into account. And that the “services”, “oil and gas”, “industries and mines”, and “agriculture” groups saw a respective growth rate of 6.5%, 10.1%, 1.1% and -2.6%.
According to CBI, Iran’s gross domestic product in the fiscal 2020-21 registered 3.6% growth. Economic growth, excluding oil, expanded 2.5%.
According to SCI, the year’s GDP expanded by 0.7% compared with the year before.
Economic growth, excluding oil, saw an economic growth of near zero, SCI reported.
Discrepancies were also seen in SCI and CBI reports on Iran's economic growth in the fiscal 2019-20.
According to SCI, the Iranian economy experienced a -7% contraction in the fiscal 2019-20, as GDP shrank by -0.6% excluding oil production.
This is while the CBI put fiscal 2019-20 growth at -6.5%, but excluding the oil sector, growth was put at 1.1%.
Iran's gross domestic product shrank by 4.9% in the fiscal 2018-19 compared to the year before, according to SCI.
The center put that year's growth without taking oil production into account at -2.4%.
CBI did not release any report on the fiscal 2018-19 economic growth rate.
Iran’s economy emerged from recession in the fiscal 2014-15 with a 3% growth after two years of recession when the economy contracted 5.8% and 1.9% back to back, according to the Central Bank of Iran.
Growth in 2015-16 has been put at -1.6% by CBI and 0.9% by SCI.
CBI has put 2016-17 growth at 12.5% while SCI says it was much lower and near 8.3%.
World Bank, IMF Forecasts
The World Bank lowered its forecasts for Iran’s economic growth in October.
The MENA Economic Update report expects the country’s real GDP to rise by 2.9% in 2022 and 2.2% in 2023.
Previously, the World Bank had forecast the figures at 3.7 for this year and 2.7% for the next.
The bank has also revised its estimate for growth rates in 2021 and 2020. The new estimates stand at 4.7% for 2021 (up from 4.1% in the previous report) and 3.3% for 2020 (down from 3.4% in the previous report).
The new report goes on to forecast Iran’s real GDP per capita growth at 1.7% in 2022 and 1.1% in 2023.
Estimates for 2021 and 2020 are at 3.4% and 2% respectively.
Iran’s current account balance is expected to rise from 3.5% of GDP in 2021 to 3.8% this year but fall to 2.8% while the 2020 estimate is at -0.4%.
Fiscal balance is forecast to stand at -4.5% of GDP this year and -4.7% in 2023 from -5.8% in 2020 and -5.3% in 2021.
Iran’s output is boosted in 2022 by “the waning of the pandemic and higher oil prices. Growth is expected to slow subsequently, however, as unresolved structural challenges and feeble fixed investment limit the country’s growth potential,” read part of the group’s flagship World Economic Prospects report published for June.
The International Monetary Fund is expecting Iran’s economy to grow by 3% in 2022.
In its World Economic Outlook report titled “War Sets Back Global Recovery”, IMF said the economy expanded by 4% in 2021, and predicted 2% for 2023 and 2027.
IMF has put Iran’s 2014-20 GDP growth at 5%, -1.4%, 8.8%, 2.8%, -2.3%, -1.3% and 1.8% respectively with the 2004-13 average at 2.5%.
