The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations has published a new Food Outlook report on Iranian grains.
According to this report, Iran’s grain production is estimated to rise 16% in 2022 compared to last year to reach 19.5 million tons.
The forecast published in November has been revised down compared to FAO’s October projection for 2022 (20.3 million tons).
The 2018-20 average annual production has been put at 20.9 million tons.
Iran’s grain imports are forecast to decline from an estimated 21.6 million tons in the fiscal 2021-22 to 18.3 million tons in the fiscal 2022-23.
The 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual import volume has been put at 15 million tons.
Iran’s annual exports of around 0.1 million tons was insignificant throughout the surveyed periods.
Total utilization is forecast to increase from 37.2 million tons in 2021-22 to 37.5 million tons in the fiscal 2022-23. The 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual has been put at 35.1 million tons.
Stocks are expected to decline from 12.7 million tons by the end of 2022 to 12.5 million tons by the end of 2023. The average annual stocks volume in the fiscal 2019-21 has been put at 10.3 million tons.
Per capita consumption is expected to increase from 203.9 to 206 kilograms/year, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 201.6 kilograms/year.
Wheat
Wheat production is forecast to rise from an estimated 10.4 million tons in 2021 to 13 million tons in 2022, with the 2018-20 average annual at 14.3 million tons.
Imports are forecast to decline from an estimated 7.9 million tons in 2021-22 to 5 million tons in the fiscal 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 5 million tons.
FAO has recorded no wheat exports from Iran throughout the surveyed periods.
Total utilization is expected to increase from an estimated 16.2 million tons in the fiscal 2021-22 to 15.5 million tons in the fiscal 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 16.5 million tons.
Stocks volume are forecast to increase from an estimated 8.5 million tons by the end of 2022 to 9.4 million tons by the end of next year, with the 2019-21 average annual at 6.4 million tons.
Per capita consumption is forecast to rise from 163.8 kilograms/year in 2021-22 to 164.9 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 161.7 million tons.
“The government has bought 7.5 million tons of wheat from local farmers so far in the current fiscal year [started March 21] as part of its guaranteed purchase plan,” director general of Grains and Essential Goods Production Department of the Agriculture Ministry said earlier this month.
“This volume has been worth more than 830 trillion rials [$2.34 billion],” Faramak Aziz-Karimi was also quoted as saying by IRIB News.
The government bought only around 4.52 million tons of the grain last year.
Considered a staple in Iran, wheat is purchased every crop year by the government to build up its reserves and supply the market over time.
Iran’s domestic demand, currently stands at 11 million tons per year. Some 9 million tons of this go to supply the country’s bread sector and the remaining 3 million tons are used in industries and pastry business.
A total of 1.7 million tons of wheat have been imported to Iran since the beginning of the current Iranian year on March 21, registering a 113% rise compared with the similar period of last year, the Government Trading Corporation of Iran announced last month.
GTC, affiliated with the Agriculture Ministry, is in charge of ensuring the adequate supply of essential goods, including wheat, rice, cooking oil, sugar and meat, to the local market.
Iran has imported a total of 96.48 million tons of wheat worth $22.84 billion over the past 30 years, the former spokesperson of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration said recently.
The highest volume of imports were registered in the fiscal 2014-15 with 7.43 million tons, 2021-22 with 7.07 million tons and 2001-2 with 6.77 million tons, Rouhollah Latifi was also quoted as saying by ILNA.
He added that the lowest volume was registered in the fiscal 2018-19 with only 360 tons.
The private sector has been allowed to place orders for wheat imports as of Aug. 23. The government agreed to take the measure after seven years of banning wheat imports by private traders, according to the head of the Agriculture and Food Processing Commission of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture.
“In a meeting with the first vice president around three months ago, we made our request for the private sector to be allowed to be active in the field of wheat imports. Fortunately, our request was accepted and later the government’s Economic Council agreed to give us the permit. Now a directive allowing private businesses to import different types of wheat has been communicated to provinces across the country,” Kaveh Zargaran was also quoted as saying by the news portal of TCCIM.
The official added that every year domestic wheat harvest ends in September, so imports of the grain cannot hurt local farmers at this time.
Iran’s wheat storage capacity currently stands at 21.41 million tons, making it one of the Middle East’s largest, according to the Government Trading Corporation.
The silos, located in 158 regions across the country, include metal, concrete and mechanized storages with a capacity of 18.01 million tons of wheat for long-term periods and simple semi-mechanized storages with a capacity of 3.4 million tons for short-term periods, IRNA reported.
GTC says Iran’s demand for wheat storage is close to 11 million tons per year, adding that the surplus storage capacity is used as terminal for temporary imports and redistribution to regional countries, creating revenues and job opportunities.
Coarse Grains
Coarse grain production is forecast to remain unchanged at 4.3 million tons, with the 2018-20 average annual at 4 million tons.
Imports are forecast to decline from an estimated 12.2 million tons in 2021-22 to 11.5 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 12.1 million tons.
FAO has not recorded any coarse grain exports from Iran throughout the surveyed periods.
Total utilization is expected to decline from an estimated 17.3 million tons in 2022 to 17.1 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 15.4 million tons.
Stocks volume are forecast to decline from an estimated 3.8 million tons by the end of 2022 to 2.5 million tons by the end of next year, with the 2019-21 average annual at 3 million tons.
Per capita consumption is expected to remain unchanged at 1.2 million tons annually throughout the surveyed periods.
Maize
Maize (corn) production is forecast to remain unchanged at 1.3 million tons, with the 2018-20 average annual at 1 million tons.
Imports are forecast to decline from an estimated 9.5 million tons in 2021-22 to 8.8 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 9.5 million tons.
FAO has recorded no maize exports from Iran throughout the surveyed periods.
Total utilization is expected to decline from an estimated 11.5 million tons in 2021-22 to 10.8 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 10.1 million tons.
Stocks volume are forecast to decline from an estimated 2 million tons by the end of 2022 to 1.5 million tons by the end of next year, with the 2019-21 average annual at 1.9 million tons.
Per capita consumption is forecast to decline from 0.9 kilograms/year in 2021-22 to 0.8 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 0.9 million tons.
Iran’s domestic demand for maize stands at around 9 million tons per year. This is while local production meets close to 1.2 million tons of the sum, according to the manager of Export Department of Iranian Company for Maize Development (ICMD Co.).
“Though the deficit is a big number, we can make up for it by cultivating high-yielding seeds and seeds that need less water and are resilient to water salinity, fertilizing farm soil, planting maize seedlings instead of seeds, managing and controlling pests, using modern irrigation methods, drainage systems as well as new technologies offered by startups and knowledge-based companies,” Mohammad Qasemnejad was also quoted as saying by IRNA.
The official noted that at present, each hectare of maize field yields an average of 7.5 tons of the crop, adding that plans are to increase this figure to 9.5 tons in the near future.
“Currently, maize is cultivated on 160,000 hectares of farmland across the county. We are trying to increase the land under maize cultivation to help reduce imports,” he said.
Qasemnejad also said Iran imports 14 million tons of livestock feed raw materials every year, between 8 million and 9 million of which are maize used for human, livestock and poultry consumption.
“Khuzestan Province in southern Iran is the country’s main maize production hub. This year close to 50,000 hectares of farms have gone under maize cultivation. Khuzestan’s agricultural yields amount to 17.5 million tons per year, accounting for 14% of the country’s total agricultural production,” he added.
There are 1.25 million hectares of farmlands in Khuzestan. The southern province ranks among the top producers of essential goods, including wheat, maize, oilseeds, rice, sugarbeet, beetroot as well as citrus fruits, vegetables, dates and flowers.
A total of $1.17 billion worth of maize were imported by Iran during the first six months of the current fiscal year (March 21-Sep. 22), latest data released by the Islamic Republic of Iran’s Customs Administration show
Barley
Barley production is forecast to remain unchanged at 3 million tons, with the 2018-20 average annual at the same volume.
Imports are forecast to remain unchanged at 2.7 million tons, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 2.5 million tons.
FAO has recorded no barley exports from Iran throughout the surveyed periods.
Total utilization is expected to increase from an estimated 5.7 million tons in 2021-22 to 6.3 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 5.3 million tons.
Stocks volume are forecast to decline from an estimated 1.8 million tons by the end of 2022 to 1 million tons by the end of next year, with the -21 average annual at 1.1 million tons.
Per capita consumption is forecast to remain unchanged at 0.3 million tons, with the average annual at about the same volume.
Rice
Rice production is forecast to rise from an estimated 2 million tons in 2021 to 2.3 million tons in 2022, with the 2018-20 average annual at 2.6 million tons.
Imports are forecast to increase from an estimated 1.6 million tons in 2021-22 to 1.8 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 1.3 million tons.
FAO has recorded no rice exports from Iran throughout the surveyed periods.
Total utilization is expected to increase from an estimated 3.8 million tons in 2021-22 to 4 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 3.9 million tons.
Stocks volume are forecast to increase from an estimated 0.5 million tons by the end of 2022 to 0.6 million tons by the end of next year, with the 2019-21 average annual at 0.9 million tons.
Per capita consumption is forecast to rise from 38.9 kilograms/year in 2021-22 to 40 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 38.7 million tons.
More than 1 million tons of rice were imported into Iran during the first half of the current Iranian year (March 21-Sept. 22), IRNA reported.
From the total imports, around 20% or 218,000 tons were imported by the Government Trading Corporation.
The lion’s share of Iran’s rice imports come from India and neighboring Pakistan. The UAE, Thailand, Turkey and Iraq are other traditional rice exporters to Iran.
A total of 1.75 million tons of rice were imported into Iran during the last Iranian year (March 2021-22). The import volume set a 10-year record high, according to the secretary of Iran Rice Association.
“Last year’s imports was more than twice the volume the country needed to make for the domestic production deficiency,” Jamil Alizadeh Shayeq was also quoted as saying by Mehr News Agency.
A total of 2.25 million tons of rice were produced in Iran during the last Iranian year (March 2021-22), according to the deputy head of Iran Rice Union, Ahmad Eshraqi.
“According to the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, more than 1.2 million tons of rice were imported last year,” he was quoted as saying by the Young Journalists Club.
The three northern provinces of Gilan, Mazandaran and Golestan are Iran’s rice production hubs.
According to Aziz-Karimi, there are 654,000 hectares of paddy fields scattered across the country, 440,000 hectares of which are located in the three northern provinces.
Oilseeds
Total oilseed production is expected to remain unchanged at 0.9 million tons with the average annual at about the same volume.
Imports are forecast to decline from an estimated 2.3 million tons in 2021-22 to 2.5 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 2.4 million tons.
Oilseed exports from Iran are insignificant.
Total utilization is expected to increase from an estimated 16.2 million tons in 2021-22 to 15.5 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 16.5 million tons.
Stocks volume are forecast to increase from an estimated 8.5 million tons by the end of 2022 to 9.4 million tons by the end of next year, with the 2019-21 average annual at 6.4 million tons.
Per capita consumption is forecast to rise from 163.8 kilograms/year in 2021-22 to 164.9 million tons in 2022-23, with the 2018-19 to 2020-21 average annual at 161.7 million tons.
Only around 150,000 tons of the annual domestic demand for refined edible oils is produced locally, as more than 1.5 million tons are supplied via imports, according to the Government Trading Corporation.
Over 183,000 hectares of land go under colza cultivation every year, from which close to 295,000 tons of the oilseeds are harvested, Mehr News Agency reported.
Golestan in the north of the country, with 51,000 hectares under cultivation and annual yields of around 80,000 tons, tops the list of provinces where colza is produced, followed by Khuzestan Province in the south with 45,500 hectares producing around 76,000 tons of the oilseed.
Other main producers of oilseed in Iran are the provinces of Fars, North Khorasan, Ardabil, Mazandaran, Sistan-Baluchestan, Kerman, West Azarbaijan, Semnan and Isfahan.
Per capita vegetable oil consumption in Iran is about 18-19 kilograms a year while the global average is 12 kilograms.
Iran’s Agriculture Ministry set a roadmap in late 2015 to achieve 70% self-sufficiency in the production of oilseeds over a 10-year period to keep the costly imports of oilseeds and vegetable oil in check. At the time, domestic production met 6% of the annual demand.
Last year, around six years after the plan was first implemented, the figure reached 16%.
Also stipulated in the 10-year plan is that land under oilseed cultivation should reach 700,000 hectares by the end of the plan (fiscal 2025-26). This is while, according to GTC, the current figure is a bit shy of 300,000 hectares, meaning the government has less than three years to convince farmers to cultivate these products on 400,000 hectares of their farms.
Experts believe the increase in production costs, decline in precipitation levels, low purchase prices set by the government and the rise in global prices are among the reasons the government plan has failed.
“Compared with other crops, oilseed guaranteed prices [set by the government] have always been low. This is the main reason farmers have shown little interest in cultivating such crops. This year, the parliament ratified that a pricing committee take over the responsibility of setting prices for different types of oilseeds instead of the government. This committee is made up of state and private sector officials and has agreed on higher prices for the next crop year,” said Qasem Pishehvar, the head of Agriculture and Natural Resources Guild Organization.
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