The suburban population in Iran is about 14 million, according to Ardeshir Geravand, a social researcher.
Noting that 50% of the residents of metropolises have elsewhere as their home city, he said this share reaches 62% in Tehran.
“Thirty percent of households don’t have an employed member as of the current [Iranian] year [started March 21]. Before the Islamic Revolution, the number of jobholders in the industrial sector accounted for 33% of the country’s population but today we have yet to achieve that level,” he was quoted as saying by ILNA.
“Iran is grappling with a dangerous imbalance. Before the revolution, centralization was followed in all sectors, including the industrial sector. We failed to get rid of that trend. Agriculture, industry and industrial husbandry have been centered in Tehran, Isfahan, Yazd and Semnan. All infrastructures have been built in the center of the country. Regional imbalance has turned into internal migration, tilting the gender balance in Yazd, Bushehr and Gilan,” he added.
Geravand considers the lack of land-use planning and monitoring and supervision systems as one of the weaknesses in the country.
“We don’t have such plans, yet we draw up five-year development plans. Development plans are useless in the absence of land-use planning. We can’t achieve the objectives of development plans as long as the Plan and Budget Organization, the Central Bank of Iran, the Department of Environment and the Social Security Organization are affiliated to the government,” he said.
SCI’s Population Estimate
The Statistical Center of Iran has published for the first time the findings of its latest population estimates at the county level pertaining to the fiscal 2021-22.
The population of 31 provinces and 469 counties has been calculated separately for men and women as well as urban and rural population, SCI reported.
Forty new counties have been added to the list of Iranian counties after the National Population and Housing Census in the year ending March 2017.
The total population of the country in the Iranian year 2021-22 was estimated at about 84.55 million: 42.46 million men and 41.58 million women.
A total of 63.87 million people lived in urban areas and 20.17 million people lived in rural areas.
The total number of households in the country was at 26.38 million, of whom 20.37 million lived in urban and six million lived in rural areas.
Tehran with 9.03 million, Mashhad with 3.61 million and Isfahan with 2.17 million were the most populous Iranian counties while Abu Musa in Hormozgan Province with 8,000, Chovar in Ilam with 9,000 and Aradan in Semnan with 12,000 people were the least populous counties in Iran.
SCI estimates that the age of over 26% of Iran’s population will be 60 or older by fiscal 2051-52.
The population of this age group accounted for 9.3% of the total population in the fiscal 2016-17.
SCI also estimates that about 19% of Iran’s total population will be 65 years or older by fiscal 2051-52.
In the fiscal 1956-57, the elderly population of Iran (those of ages 65 years or older) stood at 4% of the total population.
The share of the elderly from the total population started decreasing in the fiscal 1966-67 until 1996-97 from 3.8% to 3.1% and started increasing from 1996-97 until 2016-17 from 4.4% to 6.1%.
The SCI data also show that the population of elderly females is growing at a faster pace compared with their male peers.
The population of elderly male and female stood at 400,000 each in the fiscal 1956-57. It stood at 500,000 for each in the fiscal 1966-67 and 600,000 in 1976-77. In the fiscal 1986-87, the elderly male population stood at 800,000 people and that of elderly female hit 700,000 people. The population of elderly female stood at 1.2 million in the fiscal 1996-97, while that of elderly male hit 1.4 million people. In the fiscal 2006-07, the elderly male population stood at 1.9 million and elderly female population hit 1.7 million. The population for elderly male and female stood at 2.2 million each in the fiscal 2011-12.
The population of elderly women started to outpace men’s since the fiscal 2016-17 and stood at 2.5 million, while the elderly male’s population stood at 2.4 million people.
It is estimated that the population of elderly women will stand at 10.1 million in the fiscal 2051-52 and the elderly men’s population will reach 8.9 million.
According to latest data released by the Statistical Center of Iran in the fiscal 2016-17, Iran's population stood at 79,926,270 – 9,430,488 more than the fiscal 2006-07.
SCI conducts population census every 10 years.
Decline in Population Growth
The increase in population from the fiscal 2006-07 to fiscal 2011-12 hit 4,653,887 with an average growth of 1.29%, and the increase from fiscal 2011-12 to fiscal 2016-17 stood at 4,776,601 with an average growth of 1.24%, according to Javad Hosseinzadeh, the head of SCI.
Following a second wave of population growth, the rate was expected to be more than 1.5 percent, however it seems that the contribution of cultural and social factors such as increase in the level of literacy and education especially among women, urbanization, industrialization, growth in living costs, tendency of families for having fewer children among others has reduced average annual growth of the country's population.
According to SCI, the population in urban areas increased at an average annual rate of 1.97% during the five-year period under review as in rural areas it is decreasing at 0.68%.
The country's urbanization ratio stood at 74% and the opposite, ruralization, ratio was 30%.
People who were born in 1980’s– currently in their youth and adulthood – will be 65 or older in three or four decades. These people actually form most of the youth population in Iran. Therefore, it is estimated that the currently young population of Iran will move toward elder population in 30 years.
“Like many countries, Iran’s population is ageing due to factors like low fertility rates and improved healthcare, both of which are triumphs of development,” explained Leila Joudane, the United Nations Population Fund Representative in Iran. “Nonetheless, an ageing population comes with challenges as well that we must address if we are to convert them into opportunities.”
Today, as in several other countries, many of Iran’s older persons are highly vulnerable. Many face financial challenges. Some are becoming disabled or facing discrimination. UNFPA is working with its government partners to support research into the phenomenon of Iran’s ageing population, and promote the adoption of policies that support older people and meet their needs.
Tehran Province's Population to Hit 20m
Tehran Province's population is expected to reach 20 million in 5 years. Tehran is the twenty-fifth most populous city in the world, and its population is increasing every year.
“Between 200,000 to 250,000 people are added to Tehran's population each year,” Masoud Shafiei, the head of the Management and Planning Organization of Tehran Province, was quoted as saying by ILNA.
This increase in population includes immigrants from other cities and villages as well as foreign countries.
According to SCI, the population of the capital city Tehran increased by 6.6% over five years from the fiscal year ending March 2012 to the year ending March 2017.
