Following the success of the Third Five-Year Development Plan in achieving a 5.7% economic growth, an 8% economic growth was envisioned in the Fourth Plan for the first time. The plan also set the inflation rate at 9.9% and investment rate at 12.2%, which were never achieved. In fact, the economy registered half of those figures, i.e., 4.4% economic growth, 15.4% inflation and 5.7% investment, Hossein Haqgou, an economist, prefaced his write-up for the Persian daily Ta’adol with this note. A translation of the text follows:
Despite the failure of the Fourth Plan, the 8% economic growth and single-digit inflation rate were included in the fifth and sixth development plans again, which objectives, as expected, were not achieved.
The average economic growth of the Fifth Plan was -0.6% and that of Sixth Plan was between -1 and 0; the economy saw the fall of investment [negative investment rates were registered] and the inflation rate exceeded 40%.
Once again, an 8% economic growth has been included in the next development plan that, given the pervious economic performance of the government, seems highly unlikely to transpire. As the secretary of the joint commission for general policies of the seventh development plan said earlier, “Assessments show not more than 35% of objectives of development plans [first to sixth] have been achieved.”
The parliament speaker has also owned up the failure of development plans, saying, “We have carried out a maximum 30% of these six plans; 70% of plans have not been implemented.”
These figures show the objectives achieved as per three development plans were as many as one development plan, i.e. 15 years instead of five years.
Generally speaking, the implementation of six development plans, post-Islamic revolution, have failed to resolve high inflation, low economic growth [around 2%], investment, productivity and high unemployment as the main challenges in the way of development. On reasons why development plans failed, state institutions and their affiliated research centers as well as independent research centers and their experts have written profusely.
All these analyses blame the failure of development plans on the lack of a clear definition of development and its features and lack of a systemic, comprehensible perspective as well as internal and external instabilities resulting from the weakness of partisan, civil system and legal freedoms as well as shortcomings in diplomacy to control foreign tensions and international sanctions against our country. Any version of a development plan is doomed to fail, given the aforementioned issues.
There is no magic wand! Not a single country has reached sustainable economic growth of more than 5% with political instability, social dissatisfaction and lack of relation with global economy.
Countries with decades-long 8% economic growth rates have had close ties with global economy.
Our own experience with the Third Plan is indicative of the necessity of these rules and principles. Those years, the political climate of the country was one favoring the easing of tensions with the world; the idea of Dialogue Among Civilizations [introduced by ex-president, Mohammad Khatami] was gaining ground. If the decision-makers are bent on achieving the 8% economic growth, they need to form a national consensus based on this goal and resolve fundamental issues.
