The fertility rate in Iran has been on decline in recent years.
According to the Statistical Center of Iran, the fertility rate of women in Iran (both Iranian and non-Iranian nationals) was 2.09 in the fiscal 2017-18, 1.95 in 2018-19, 1.74 in 2019-20, 1.65 in 2020-21 and 1.65 in 2021-22.
The total fertility rate of Iranian women was 2.07 in 2017-18, 1.97 in 2018-19, 1.77 in 2019-20, 1.71 in 2020-21 and 1.74 in 2021-22.
The total fertility rate in Iran increased slightly in 2021-22, thanks to the rise in the fertility rate of non-Iranians.
The fertility rate of Iranian women has been the same in 2020-21 and 2021-22.
In recent years, the childbearing pattern is concentrated in the middle-aged population. The age pattern of fertility shows a fall in fertility in all ages, including the age groups of 20-24, 25-29 and 30-34. The change indicates a decrease in fertility, especially among the young age group, which in turn contributed significantly to the decline in total fertility in Iran.
All provinces saw a decline in total fertility over the last five years, which makes it a widespread phenomenon in most parts of Iran.
Some provinces, however, registered a higher fertility rate in 2021-22 compared with 2020-21. In 2021-22, the fertility rate of the provinces that hosted foreign immigrants, including Yazd, Alborz, Sistan-Baluchestan, Tehran and Isfahan, increased slightly compared with 2020-21.
Twenty-seven provinces posted fertility rates below the replacement level in 2021-22, of which 20 provinces registered a fertility rate below the replacement level of between 2.09 and 1.51, two provinces registered a “low” fertility rate of between 1.31 and 1.5 and five provinces registered “very low” fertility rate of less than 1.3.
Only four provinces posted fertility rates above the replacement level last year.
The total fertility rate is the average number of children a woman gives birth to in her lifetime (it’s different from the birthrate, which is the number of children born per thousand people each year).
“Replacement-level fertility” is the total fertility rate — the average number of children born per woman — at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration.
SCI’s Population Estimate
The Statistical Center of Iran has published for the first time the findings of its latest estimate on population at the county level pertaining to the fiscal 2021-22.
The population of 31 provinces and 469 counties has been calculated separately for men and women, as well as urban and rural population, SCI reported.
Forty new counties have been added to the list of Iranian counties after the National Population and Housing Census in the year ending March 2017.
The total population of the country in the fiscal 2021-22 was estimated at 84.55 million: 42.46 million men and 41.58 million women.
A total of 63.87 million people lived in urban areas and 20.17 million lived in rural areas.
The total number of households in the country was at 26.38 million, of whom 20.37 million lived in urban areas and six million lived in rural areas.
Tehran with 9.03 million, Mashhad with 3.61 million and Isfahan with 2.17 million were the most populous Iranian counties while Abu Musa in Hormozgan Province with 8,000, Chovar in Ilam with 9,000 and Aradan in Semnan with 12,000 people were the least populous counties in Iran.
SCI estimates that the age of over 26% of Iran’s population will be 60 or older by fiscal 2051-52.
The population of this age group accounted for 9.3% of the total population in the fiscal 2016-17.
SCI also estimates that about 19% of Iran’s total population will be 65 years or older by the fiscal 2051-52.
In the fiscal 1956-57, the elderly population of Iran (those of ages 65 years or older) stood at 4% of the total population.
The share of the elderly from the total population started decreasing in the fiscal 1966-67 until 1996-97 from 3.8% to 3.1% and started increasing from 1996-97 until 2016-17 from 4.4% to 6.1%.
The SCI data also show that the population of elderly females is growing at a faster pace compared with their male peers.
The population of elderly male and female stood at 400,000 each in the fiscal 1956-57. It stood at 500,000 for each in the fiscal 1966-67 and 600,000 in 1976-77. In the fiscal 1986-87, the elderly male population stood at 800,000 people and that of elderly female hit 700,000 people. The population of elderly female stood at 1.2 million in the fiscal 1996-97, while that of elderly male hit 1.4 million people. In the fiscal 2006-07, the elderly male population stood at 1.9 million and elderly female population hit 1.7 million. The population for elderly male and female stood at 2.2 million each in the fiscal 2011-12.
The population of elderly women started to outpace men’s since the fiscal 2016-17 and stood at 2.5 million, while the elderly men’s population stood at 2.4 million people.
It is estimated that the population of elderly women will stand at 10.1 million in the fiscal 2051-52 and the elderly men’s population will reach 8.9 million.
According to latest data released by the Statistical Center of Iran in the fiscal 2016-17, Iran's population stood at 79,926,270, - 9,430,488 more than fiscal 2006-07.
SCI conducts population census every 10 years.
Decline in Population Growth
The rise in population from the fiscal 2006-07 to fiscal 2011-12 hit 4,653,887 with an average growth of 1.29%, and the rise from the fiscal 2011-12 to fiscal 2016-17 stood at 4,776,601 with an average growth of 1.24%, according to Javad Hosseinzadeh, the head of SCI.
Following a second wave of population growth, the rate was expected to be more than 1.5%, but it seems that the contribution of cultural and social factors such as the rise in the level of literacy and education, especially among women, urbanization, industrialization, growth in living costs and the tendency of families for having fewer children have reduced the average annual growth of the country's population.
According to SCI, the population in urban areas has increased at an average annual rate of 1.97% during the five-year period under review while that of rural areas is decreasing at 0.68%.
The country's urbanization ratio stood at 74% and the ruralization ratio reached 30%.
People who were born in the 1980s – currently in their youth and adulthood – will be 65 or older in three or four decades. These people actually form most of the youth population in Iran. Therefore, it is estimated that the young population of Iran will transform into elderly population in 30 years.
“Like many countries, Iran’s population is aging due to factors like low fertility rates and improved healthcare, both of which are triumphs of development,” explained Leila Joudane, the United Nations Population Fund representative in Iran. “Nonetheless, an aging population comes with challenges as well, that we must address if we are to convert them into opportunities.”
Today, as in several other countries, many of Iran’s elderly people are highly vulnerable. Many face financial challenges, while some are becoming disabled or facing discrimination.
UNFPA is working with government partners to support research into the phenomenon of Iran’s aging population and promote the adoption of policies that support older people and meet their needs.
Tehran Province's Population to Hit 20m in 5 Years
Tehran Province's population is expected to reach 20 million in five years. Tehran is the 25th most populous city in the world and its population is increasing every year.
“Between 200,000 and 250,000 people are added to Tehran's population each year,” Masoud Shafiei, the head of the Management and Planning Organization of Tehran Province, was quoted as saying by ILNA.
The rise in population includes immigrants from other cities and villages as well as foreign countries.
According to SCI, the population of capital city Tehran increased by 6.6% over five years from the fiscal 2011-12 to 2016-17.
SCI estimated that 8,693,706 people and 2,903,435 households lived in Tehran in the year ending March 2017.
Of the 8,693,706 people living in Tehran, 17.4% were between 0 and 14 years, 74.1% were between 15 and 64 years, and 8.4% were 65 years or older.
The size of household reduced by 0.1 people to stand at 3 members per household in the year ending March 2017 compared with the year ending March 2012.
Of the 2,903,435 households living in Tehran, 84.2% (or 2,445,016 households) had male breadwinners and 15.8% (or 458,419 households) had female breadwinners, suggesting that one out of six households had women as the head of the family.
The relative frequency of households with women as the householder has increased by 0.4% from 15.4% to 15.8% over five years.
New migrants (those who moved to Tehran from March 2012-17) accounted for 4.7% or 404,996 people of Tehran’s population in the year ending March 2017.
The findings of the National Population and Housing Census also show 94.8% or 7,638,837 of people living in Tehran were literate and 5.1% or 414,162 were illiterate in the year ending March 2017.
Out of 2,888,713 households living in apartments or houses in the city, 1,432,136 (49.6%) were owners of their residential units and 1,208,710 households (41.8%) were renters.
About 87.4% of the residential units in Tehran in the year ending March 2017 were apartments and 12.7% were properties other than apartments.
A Super Challenge
Should the current trend in Tehran’s growing population continue, the capital will soon face a super challenge, Shahram Edalati, the deputy head of Tehran's Plan and Budget Organization, warned last year.
“Today, while Tehran Province has a 0.8% share in Iran’s area, i.e., less than 1%, its population has reached 16.6 million people and accounts for 25% of the country's gross domestic product,” he added.
The official noted that these figures show Tehran can be both the biggest opportunity and threat to the development of the country.
Referring to the rising rate of urbanization in Iran, Edalati said five decades ago, 70% of the country's population were rural, but today, after half a century, 75% of the population are living in urban areas.
The official also warned against the growing number of unofficial settlements as a result of increasing urbanization.
"Today, the population of elderly people in Tehran is increasing, but at the same time the population in the suburbs of Tehran is getting younger due to the considerable migration to these areas. Most of these people are single men who migrated to these areas for work,” he said.
“Tehran’s suburban population is more than 5.5 million, of whom about 4 million are living in unofficial settlements. Due to the aging population of Tehran, one of the most lucrative occupations will be caring for the elderly in nursing homes in the future.”
Asked about the number of people living in unofficial settlements inside the city of Tehran, he said 1.5 million people are living in unofficial settlements in Tehran’s urban areas.
Edalati noted that out of the population of 800,000 people in the villages of Tehran Province, 300,000 are living in homes highly vulnerable to earthquakes.
“About 350,000 people are considered neither urban nor rural population, some of whom are living in tents. The only way to solve the housing problem of Tehran Province is urban regeneration” he said.
