Iran traded 11.32 million tons of goods worth $8.11 billion (excluding crude oil exports) during the fifth month of the current Iranian year (July 23-Aug. 22) to register a 10.6% and 25.4% rise in tonnage and value respectively compared with the similar month of last year, according to the spokesperson of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration.
Exports stood at 8.42 million tons worth $3.65 billion, registering an 11% and 18% year-on-year rise in weight and value respectively, Rouhollah Latifi was also quoted as saying by IRNA.
China was the biggest export destination of Iranian exports during the period, as it imported 2.26 million tons worth $1.1 billion to register a 1% YOY increase in value.
It was followed by Iraq with 1.73 million tons worth $563 million (up 38% in value) and the UAE with 1.05 million worth $517 million (up 89% in value).
Imports during the period stood at 2.9 million tons worth $4.42 million, indicating a 9% and 32% growth year-on-year.
The UAE was the biggest exporter to Iran during the period with 1 million tons worth $1.2 billion to register a 26% YOY rise in value.
China with 334,00 tons worth $1.09 billion (up 52% in value) and Turkey with 180,00 tons worth $379 million (down 8% in value) followed.
Latifi noted that more than 1 million tons of foreign goods were transited through Iran during the same period, registering a 3% YOY increase.
Five-Month Trade
Alireza Moqaddesi, the head of Islamic Republic of Iran’s Customs Administration, said Iran’s exports, excluding crude oil, stood at 44 million tons worth $20.92 billion during the first five months of the current fiscal year (March 21-Aug. 22), registering a 3.5% decline in weight but a 21% growth in value compared with the corresponding period of last year.
Liquid propane, methanol, liquefied natural gas, polyethylene, iron and steel ingots were the main goods exported during the period.
China, Iraq, the UAE, Turkey and India were the top destinations, IRNA reported.
According to IRICA spokesman, a total of 16.55 million tons worth $9.14 billion of petrochemical products were exported during the five months, registering a 12.6% decline in weight, but a 38% growth in value.
Latifi said petrochemical products accounted for 38% of total exports in weight and 44% in value.
Imports hit 14 million tons worth $21.67 billion during the same period, registering an 8.5% decline in weight, but a 19% growth in value.
Wheat, rice, corn, mobile phones, unprocessed oil and soymeal were the main imported products.
The UAE, China, Turkey, India and Russia were the main exporters to Iran during the period.
According to Moqaddesi, 6 million tons of foreign goods were transited through Iran during the five months under review, registering a 25% year-on-year rise.
Decline in Trade in Real Terms: TCCIM
Despite IRICA reports saying Iran’s trade has been on the rise, which draws on nominal values, a recent report released by the Economic Studies Department of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture shows how trade has been declining in real terms.
According to this report, from the fiscal 2011-12 to 2021-22, the general trend of real exports and imports of goods and services from/to Iran has been downward with the latter registering a more pronounced decline.
The goods and services exports in the fiscal 2011-12 stood at 2,530,000 billion rials at constant prices of fiscal 2016-17. The figure dropped to 2,220,000 billion rials in the fiscal 2021-22.
The average real annual growth of exports during the period stands at -29.1%.
The import of goods and services in the fiscal 2011-12 at constant prices of fiscal 2016-17 was about 5,100,000 billion rials (almost twice the volume of exports in that year). It reached 1,280,000 rials (58% of exports) by the end of the period under review.
The average real annual growth of imports was at -12.9%.
The intensification of sanctions, restrictions on access to foreign exchange resources and export earnings, and imposition of restrictions on the import of certain groups of goods by the Iranian government influenced the country’s commercial landscape during the period.
During half of the decade from the fiscal 2012-13 to 2021-22, the annual growth of goods and services exports was positive and during the other half, it was negative.
During this period, the annual growth of imports was negative in six years, while it was positive in four years.
From the fiscal 2014-15 to 2016-17, the annual growth of exports was positive and reached 27.4% in the fiscal 2016-17.
The rate of export growth took on a downtrend as of the fiscal 2017-18 and it became negative from the fiscal 2018-19 to fiscal 2020-21.
The average annual growth of exports was -11% during the three-year period.
During the same period, the average annual growth of imports was -30%.
In the fiscal 2021-22, the export’s average annual growth became positive after three consecutive years of negative trend and reached 5.2%. The growth of oil exports and non-oil exports were both effective here.
The average annual growth of imports was positive and stood at 24%, which is the highest figure from the fiscal 2011-12 to fiscal 2021-22.
From the fiscal 2012-13 to 2021-22, the contribution of exports of goods and services to Iran’s economic growth was positive during half of the years under review and negative during the other half.
The contribution of imports to growth was positive for six years and negative for four years.
From the fiscal 2018-19 to fiscal 2020-21, the goods and services exports’ contribution was negative due to the intensification of sanctions and the decline in oil exports. This is while the role of imports was positive due to the restrictions on some imported goods and decline in imports.
The average annual contribution rate of goods and services exports was negative and stood at 1.3%, while it was positive for imports and hit 12.9% during the fiscal 2011-12 to fiscal 2021-22.
In the fiscal 2021-22, the increase in goods and services exports led to economic growth and stood at 0.75% in the 4.7% economic growth.
The growth in imports also had a negative contribution to economic growth and stood at 1.71%.
In general, the net export of goods and services had a negative impact of 0.96 percentage points in the economic growth of fiscal 2021-22.
The TCCIM report cited a recent joint studies by the World Trade Organization and the World Bank regarding the role of trade in developing economies and said the total share of developing countries in world exports increased from 16% in 1990 to 39% in 2021 which, along with the growth of exports and a rise in their share in total global trade, led to the improvement of the welfare and economic growth of these economies.
Export of goods from developing economies increased from $3.38 trillion in 2005 with a 2.8-fold increase to $9.6 trillion in 2021, and the export of services of these economies increased from $563 billion in 2005 with a similar growth rate to $1.6 trillion in 2021.
According to Iran’s foreign trade statistics, in Iran's economy, the export of goods and services has not played a positive role in generating economic growth, rather in some periods, it has had a negative contribution to growth.
