Iran traded 46.82 million tons of goods worth $34.4 billion (excluding crude oil exports) with other countries during the first four months of the current fiscal year (March 21-July 22), the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration announced.
IRICA said the traded goods registered a 19% year-on-year growth without specifying whether the rise was registered for tonnage or value of trade, IRNA reported.
Exports stood at 35.66 million tons worth $17.24 billion, registering a 22% rise in value compared with the similar period of last year.
They mainly included oil products, petrochemicals and gas, including propane, methanol, LNG, butane, polyethylene, petroleum bitumen, light petroleum oils, urea and iron and steel ingots.
China with 10.06 million tons worth $5.62 billion was the biggest export destination. It was followed by Iraq with 6.93 million tons worth $2.4 billion, the UAE with 3.95 million tons worth $2.26 billion, Turkey with 3.36 million tons worth $2.06 billion and India with 1.33 million tons worth $567 million.
Imports stood at 11.16 million tons worth 17.24 billion, registering a 17% year-on-year growth in terms of value.
The imports mainly included wheat, rice, cellphones, corn, soybean and soymeal, sunflower oil, unrefined sugar,, tractors and coke.
The UAE with 3.6 million tons worth $4.88 billion was the biggest exporter to Iran during the period.
It was followed by China with 1.19 million tons worth $4.42 billion, Turkey with 983,000 tons worth $1.79 billion, India with 528,000 worth $859 million and Russia with 930,000 tons worth $599 million.
Decline in Trade in Real Terms: TCCIM
Despite the IRICA report saying Iran’s trade has been on the rise, which draws on nominal values, a recent report released by the Economic Studies Department of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture shows how trade has been declining in real terms.
According to this report, from the fiscal 2011-12 to 2021-22, the general trend of real exports and imports of goods and services from/to Iran has been downward with the latter registering a more pronounced decline.
The goods and services exports in the fiscal 2011-12 stood at 2,530,000 billion rials at constant prices of fiscal 2016-17. The figure dropped to 2,220,000 billion rials in the fiscal 2021-22.
The average real annual growth of exports during the period stands at -29.1%.
The import of goods and services in the fiscal 2011-12 at constant prices of fiscal 2016-17 was about 5,100,000 billion rials (almost twice the volume of exports in that year). It reached 1,280,000 rials (58% of exports) by the end of the period under review.
The average real annual growth of imports was -12.9%.
Intensification of sanctions, restrictions on access to foreign exchange resources and export earnings, and imposition of bans and restrictions on the import of certain products by the Iranian government played a significant role in shaping the country’s commercial landscape during the period.
During the first half of the decade from fiscal 2012-13 to 2021-22, the annual growth of goods and services exports was positive and during the other half, it was negative. In fact, the annual growth of imports was negative in six years, while it was positive in four years.
From the fiscal 2014-15 to 2016-17, the annual growth of exports was positive and reached 27.4% in the fiscal 2016-17.
With intensification of sanctions and restrictions on the export of Iranian goods, as well as limitations in financial exchanges, the rate of export growth took on a downtrend as of fiscal 2017-18 and it became negative from the fiscal 2018-19 to fiscal 2020-21.
The average annual growth of exports was -11% during the three-year period.
During the same period, the average annual growth of imports was -30%.
In the fiscal 2021-22, the export’s average annual growth became positive after three consecutive years of negative trend and reached 5.2%. The growth of oil exports and non-oil exports was both effective here.
This is while the average annual growth of imports was positive and reached 24%, which is the highest figure from the fiscal 2011-12 to fiscal 2021-22.
During the decade under review, the contribution of exports of goods and services to Iran’s economic growth was positive in the first half and negative in the second half. This is while the contribution of imports to growth was positive for six years and negative for four years.
From the fiscal 2018-19 to fiscal 2020-21, the goods and services exports’ contribution was negative due to the intensification of sanctions and the decline in oil exports. This is while the role of imports was positive due to the restrictions on some imported goods and decline in imports.
The average annual contribution of goods and services exports was negative and stood at 1.3%, while it was positive for imports and hit 12.9% during the decade.
In the fiscal 2021-22, the increase in goods and services exports increased the contribution of exports to economic growth and stood at 0.75% in the 4.7% economic growth.
The growth in imports also had a negative contribution to economic growth and stood at 1.71%.
In general, the net export of goods and services had a negative impact of 0.96 percentage points in the economic growth of fiscal 2021-22.
The TCCIM report cited a recent joint studies by the World Trade Organization and the World Bank regarding the role of trade in developing economies and said the total share of developing countries in global exports increased from 16% in 1990 to 39% in 2021 which, along with the growth of exports and the increase in their share in the total global trade, led to the improvement of welfare and the economic growth of these economies.
Export of goods from developing economies increased from $3.38 trillion in 2005 with a 2.8-fold increase to $9.6 trillion in 2021, and the export of services of these economies increased from $563 billion in 2005 with a similar growth rate to $1.6 trillion in 2021.
According to Iran’s foreign trade statistics, the export of goods and services did not play a positive role in generating economic growth, rather in some periods, it has had a negative contribution to growth.
