From the fiscal 2011-12 to 2021-22, the general trend of real exports and imports of goods and services from/to Iran has been downward with the latter registering a more pronounced decline.
According to a new report released by the Economic Studies Department of Tehran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture, the goods and services exports in the fiscal 2011-12 stood at 2,530,000 billion rials at the constant prices of fiscal 2016-17. The figure dropped to 2,220,000 billion rials in the fiscal 2021-22.
The average real annual growth of exports during the period stands at -29.1%.
The import of goods and services in the fiscal 2011-12 at constant prices of the fiscal 2016-17 was about 5,100,000 billion rials (almost twice the volume of exports in that year). It reached 1,280,000 rials (58% of exports) by the end of the period under review.
The average real annual growth of the imports was at -12.9%.
The intensification of sanctions, restrictions on access to forex and export resources, and the imposition of bans on the import of certain goods by the Iranian government played a significant role in shaping the country’s commercial landscape during the period.
Trade Growth Rate
In the first half of the decade ranging from fiscal 2011-12 to 2021-22, the annual growth of goods and services exports was positive and it was negative in the other half.
During this period, the annual growth of imports was negative in six years, while it was positive in four years.
From the fiscal 2014-15 to 2016-17, the annual growth of exports was positive and reached 27.4% in the fiscal 2016-17.
With intensification of sanctions and restrictions on the export of some Iranian goods, as well as limitations on financial exchanges, the rate of export growth took on a downtrend as of fiscal 2017-18 and it became negative from the fiscal 2018-19 to fiscal 2020-21.
The average annual growth of exports was -11% during the three-year period.
During the same period, the average annual growth of imports was -30%.
In the fiscal 2021-22, the export’s average annual growth became positive after three consecutive years of negative trend and reached 5.2%. The growth of oil exports and non-oil exports were both effective here.
The average annual growth of imports was positive and stood at 24%, which is the highest figure from the fiscal 2011-12 to fiscal 2021-22.
Contribution of Trade to Economic Growth
During the decade under review, the contribution of exports of goods and services to Iran’s economic growth was positive during half of the years under review and negative during the other half.
The contribution of imports to growth was positive for six years and negative for four years.
From the fiscal 2018-19 to fiscal 2020-21, the goods and services exports’ contribution was negative due to the intensification of sanctions and the decline in oil exports. This is while the role of imports was positive due to the restrictions on some imported goods and decline in imports.
The average annual contribution rate of goods and services exports was negative and stood at 1.3%, while it was positive for imports and hit 12.9% during the fiscal 2011-12 to fiscal 2021-22.
In the fiscal 2021-22, the increase in goods and services exports led to a growth in the contribution of exports to economic growth and stood at 0.75% in the 4.7% economic growth.
The growth in imports also had a negative contribution to economic growth and stood at 1.71%.
In general, the net export of goods and services had a negative impact of 0.96 percentage points in the economic growth of fiscal 2021-22.
Developing Economies
The TCCIM report cited a recent joint studies by the World Trade Organization and the World Bank regarding the role of trade in developing economies and said the total share of developing countries in global exports increased from 16% in 1990 to 39% in 2021 which, along with the growth of exports and the increase in their share in the total global trade, led to the improvement of the welfare and economic growth of these economies.
Export of goods from developing economies increased from $3.38 trillion in 2005 with a 2.8-fold increase to $9.6 trillion in 2021, and the export of services of these economies increased from $563 billion in 2005 with a similar growth rate to $1.6 trillion in 2021.
According to Iran’s foreign trade statistics, in Iran's economy, the export of goods and services has not played a positive role in generating economic growth, rather during some periods, it has had a negative contribution to growth.
IRICA on Fiscal 2021-22 Trade
Iran’s foreign trade, excluding crude oil exports, stood at 162 million tons worth $100 billion in the fiscal 2021-22, registering a 38% rise in value compared with the year before, according to the head of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration.
“Exports stood at 122 million tons worth $48 billion, registering a 41% increase in value compared with the previous year. Iran’s top five export destinations were China, Iraq, Turkey, the UAE and Afghanistan,” Alireza Moqaddesi was also quoted as saying by IRNA.
Imports hit 40 million tons worth $52 billion during the same period, registering a 21% and 36% growth in weight and value respectively.
The UAE, China, Turkey, Germany and Russia were the main exporters.
“The imports mainly included essential goods, raw materials and production line machinery.”
Also known as necessity or basic goods, essential goods are products consumers will buy, regardless of changes in income levels.
Iran’s essential goods’ imports in fiscal 2021-22 included corn, unrefined vegetable oil, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment, wheat, oilseeds, soymeal, barley, rice, sugar, heavy vehicle tires, fertilizer, pesticide and insecticide, veterinarian medicine, red meat, chicken, eggs, pulses and tea.
