The Statistical Center of Iran has published for the first time its estimates for the fiscal 2021-22 (ended March 20) regarding the country’s population at the county level.
The population of 31 provinces and 469 counties has been calculated separately for men and women, as well as urban and rural population, SCI reported.
Forty new counties have been added to the list of Iranian counties after the National Population and Housing Census was conducted in the year ending March 2017.
Iran’s total population in the fiscal 2021-22 is estimated to be about 84.55 million: 42.46 million men and 41.58 million women. A total of 63.87 million people are living in urban areas and 20.17 million people are in rural areas.
The total number of households in the country was at 26.38 million, of whom 20.37 million lived in urban and 6 million resided in rural areas.
Tehran with 9.03 million, Mashhad with 3.61 million and Isfahan with 2.17 million were the most populous Iranian counties while Abu Musa in Hormozgan Province with 8,000, Chovar in Ilam with 9,000 and Aradan in Semnan with 12,000 people were the least populous counties.
Demographic Outlook
SCI estimates that the age of over 26% of Iran’s population will be 60 or older by the fiscal 2051-52. This age group accounted for 9.3% of the total population in the fiscal 2016-17.
In addition, about 19% of Iran’s total population will be 65 years or older by the fiscal 2051-52.
In the fiscal 1956-57, the elderly population of Iran (those aged 65 years or older) stood at 4% of the total population.
The share of the elderly in the total population started declining in the fiscal 1966-67 until 1996-97 from 3.8% to 3.1% and started increasing from 1996-97 until 2016-17 from 4.4% to 6.1%.
The SCI data also show that the population of elderly women is growing at a faster pace compared with their male peers.
The population of elderly men and women stood at 400,000 each in the fiscal 1956-57. It stood at 500,000 for each in the fiscal 1966-67, and 600,000 in 1976-77. In the fiscal 1986-87, the elderly population stood at 800,000 men and 700,000 women.
The population of elderly women stood at 1.2 million in the fiscal 1996-97, while that of elderly men hit 1.4 million people. In the fiscal 2006-07, the elderly population of men stood at 1.9 million and that of elderly women hit 1.7 million. The population for elderly men and women stood at 2.2 million each in the fiscal 2011-12.
The population of elderly women started to outpace that of men since the fiscal 2016-17 and stood at 2.5 million, while that of elderly men reached 2.4 million.
It is estimated that the population of elderly women will hit 10.1 million in the fiscal 2051-52 and that of elderly men will reach 8.9 million.
According to latest data released by the Statistical Center of Iran in the fiscal 2016-17, Iran's population stood at 79,926,270, which is 9,430,488 more than in the fiscal 2006-07.
The SCI conducts population census every 10 years.
Decline in Population Growth
The rise in population from fiscal 2006-07 to fiscal 2011-12 amounted to 4,653,887 with an average growth of 1.29%, while the increase from fiscal 2011-12 to fiscal 2016-17 stood at 4,776,601 with an average growth of 1.24%, according to Javad Hosseinzadeh, the head of SCI.
Following a second wave of population growth, the rate was expected to be more than 1.5%, but it seems that cultural and social factors such as the increase in the level of literacy and education, especially among women, urbanization, industrialization, growth in living costs and the tendency of families toward having fewer children have reduced the average annual growth of the country's population.
According to SCI, the population in urban areas increased at an average annual rate of 1.97% during the five-year period under review while it decreased at a rate of 0.68% in rural areas.
The country's urbanization ratio stood at 74% and that of ruralization was 30%.
People who were born in the 1980s – currently in their youth and adulthood – will be 65 or older in three or four decades. These people currently constitute Iran’s youth population.
“Like many countries, Iran’s population is aging due to factors like low fertility rates and improved healthcare, both of which are triumphs of development,” explained Leila Joudane, the United Nations Population Fund representative in Iran.
“Nonetheless, an aging population comes with challenges that we must address if we are to convert them to opportunities.”
Today, as in several other countries, many of Iran’s older persons are highly vulnerable. Many face financial challenges while some are becoming disabled or facing discrimination.
UNFPA is working with government partners to support research into the phenomenon of Iran’s aging population and promote the adoption of policies that support older people and meet their needs.
Tehran Province's Population to Hit 20m in 5 Years
Tehran Province's population is expected to reach 20 million in five years. Its capital city, Tehran, is the 25th most populous city in the world, and its population is increasing every year.
“Between 200,000 to 250,000 people are added to Tehran's population each year,” Masoud Shafiei, the head of the Management and Planning Organization of Tehran Province, was quoted as saying by ILNA.
This increase in population includes immigrants from other cities and villages, as well as foreign countries.
According to SCI, the population of the capital city increased by 6.6% over five years from the fiscal 2011-12 to 2016-17.
SCI estimated that 8,693,706 people and 2,903,435 households lived in Tehran in the year ending March 2017.
Of the 8,693,706 people living in Tehran, 17.4% were up to 14 years old; 74.1% were between 15 and 64 years and 8.4% were 65 years and above.
The size of household reduced by 0.1 people to stand at three members per household in the year ending March 2017 compared with the year ending March 2012.
Of the 2,903,435 households living in Tehran, 84.2% (or 2,445,016 households) had male breadwinners and 15.8% (or 458,419 households) had female breadwinners, suggesting that one out of six households had women as the head of the family.
The relative frequency of households with women as the head of the family has increased from 15.4% to 15.8% over five years.
New migrants (those who moved to Tehran from March 2012-17) accounted for 4.7% or 404,996 people of Tehran’s population in the year ending March 2017.
The findings of the National Population and Housing Census also show 94.8% or 7,638,837 of people living in Tehran were literate and 5.1% or 414,162 were illiterate in the year ending March 2017.
Out of 2,888,713 households in the city, 1,432,136 (49.6%) owned their residential units and 1,208,710 households (41.8%) were renters.
About 87.4% of the residential units in Tehran in the year ending March 2017 were apartments and 12.7% were properties other than apartments.
A Super Challenge
If the current trend in Tehran’s growing population were to continue, the capital will soon face a super challenge, Shahram Edalati, the deputy head of Tehran's Plan and Budget Organization, warned last year.
“While Tehran Province currently has a 0.8% share in Iran’s area, i.e., less than 1%, its population reached 16.6 million people and accounted for 25% of the country's gross domestic product. These figures show Tehran can be both the biggest opportunity and threat to the development of the country,” he explained.
Referring to the rising rate of urbanization, Edalati said five decades ago, 70% of the country's population was rural, but today, after half a century, 75% of the population have become urbanized.
The official warned against the growing number of unofficial settlements as a result of increasing urbanization.
"Today, the population of the elderly people in Tehran is increasing, but at the same time the population in the suburbs of Tehran is getting younger due to the significant migration to these areas. Most of these people are single men who migrated to these areas for work,” Edalati said.
“Tehran’s suburban population is more than 5.5 million, of whom about 4 million are living in unofficial settlements. Due to the aging population of Tehran, one of the most lucrative occupations will be caring for the elderly in nursing homes in the future.”
He added that 1.5 million people are living in unofficial settlements in Tehran’s urban areas.
Edalati noted that out of the population of 800,000 in the villages of Tehran Province, 300,000 are living in homes highly vulnerable to earthquakes.
“About 350,000 people are considered neither urban nor rural population, as they live in tents. The only way to solve the housing problem in Tehran Province is urban regeneration,” he said.
