The Central Bank of Iran says the economy grew by 5.7% in the third quarter of the fiscal 2021-22 (ended Dec. 21, 2021).
According to the bank, the “oil industry” saw 5.4% growth, “industries and mines” 3.8% and “services” 8.1%, while “agriculture” contracted by 2.5%.
CBI had earlier reported that the economy grew by 4.1% in Q1-3 of last fiscal year (March 21-Dec. 21, 2021) year-on-year.
According to CBI, GDP growth stood at 3.4% without taking into account crude oil production during the period under review.
Oil saw the biggest growth of 11.7% among main economic sectors surveyed by the bank.
The CBI data further show “services” expanded by 6.5%, “industries and mines” registered zero growth and “agriculture” contracted by 2.1%.
The central bank’s report came shortly after the Statistical Center of Iran said the economy grew by 5.1% during the same period (Q1-3), adding that without taking into account the growth in oil sector, GDP grew by 3.8%.
According to SCI, “agriculture” contracted by 3.9%, “industries and mines” grew by 7.1% and “services” expanded by 5.1%. The subsectors of “industries and mines”, namely “crude oil and natural gas extraction”, “other mines”, “industry”, “energy” and “construction” saw 13.4%, -2.5%, 3.4%, 5.1% and 6.3% growth, respectively.
According to CBI, Iran’s gross domestic product in the last fiscal year (March 2020-21) registered a 3.6% growth. Economic growth, excluding oil, expanded 2.5%.
According to SCI, last fiscal year’s GDP expanded by 0.7% compared with the year before.
Economic growth, excluding oil, saw an economic growth of near zero, SCI reported.
Discrepancies were also seen in the reports of SCI and CBI on Iran's economic growth in the fiscal 2019-20.
According to SCI, the Iranian economy experienced a -7% contraction in the fiscal 2019-20.
According to the center, the GDP shrank by -0.6% without taking oil production into account.
This is while CBI put fiscal 2019-20 growth at -6.5%. Excluding the oil sector, growth was put at 1.1%.
Iran's gross domestic product shrank by 4.9% in the fiscal 2018-19 compared to the year before, according to SCI. The center put that year's growth, without taking oil production into account, at -2.4%.
CBI did not release any report on the fiscal 2018-19 economic growth rate.
Iran’s economy emerged from two years of recession in the fiscal 2014-15 with a 3% growth when the economy contracted 5.8% and 1.9% back to back, according to the Central Bank of Iran.
The International Monetary Fund is expecting Iran’s economy to grow by 3% in 2022.
In a new World Economic Outlook report titled “War Sets Back Global Recovery”, IMF says the economy expanded by 4% in 2021. Predictions for 2023 and 2027 are at 2%.
IMF has put Iran’s 2014-20 GDP growth at 5%, -1.4%, 8.8%, 2.8%, -2.3%, -1.3%, and 1.8% respectively with the 2004-13 average at 2.5%.
Meanwhile, the World Bank once again revised up its forecast about Iran’s economic growth in 2022.
In a report titled “Reality Check: Forecasting Growth in the Middle East and North Africa in Times of Uncertainty”, the bank expects the Iranian economy to grow by 3.7% in 2022.
The MENA economic update’s forecast is 1.3 percentage points higher than that in the previous report published by the World Bank in January.
