April 03, 2022 19:18

GDP Growth Driven by External Factors Rather Than Investment

Iran is an oil-driven economy; when more oil is sold, economic growth increases, but as soon as oil sales drop as a result of sanctions or pandemic, economic problems crop up. Therefore, positive economic growth is not being felt by the people at large

The Statistical Center of Iran has put the country’s economic growth for the nine months to Dec. 21, 2021 [Q1-3 fiscal 2021-22] at 3.8%, excluding the oil sector, and 5.1%, including oil.
This is while the Central Bank of Iran has put the growth at 4.1% and 3.4% with and without oil respectively. But what percentage of this positive economic growth is really plausible?
Reports on inflation and monetary indicators show that the economy worsened in Q3 (Sept. 23-Dec. 21, 2021) and the trend continued into February. Inflation reached 41.4% in the month ending Feb. 19 and money supply and monetary base were, respectively, 45,000 trillion rials and 5,680 trillion rials in the month ending Jan. 20.

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