Agricensus Expects Iran’s Wheat Imports to Triple

Iran is expected to more than triple its wheat imports in the 2021-22 marketing year and could import up to 8 million tons after hot and dry weather conditions in the region, while at least half of the needed volume has already been covered, according to the London-based agency Agricensus.
Analysis by Agricensus of shipping line-up data from the region also suggests the country has already secured significant volumes of Russian wheat this marketing year, despite official data showing no such exports.
Along with other countries in the Middle East, Iran has faced severely dry and hot weather that has significantly downgraded crop production and increased its import needs, with much of the volume likely to be handled by the state-backed Government Trading Corporation (GTC).
“We need to import 8 million tons this year and GTC discharged 2 million tons last week,” a source with knowledge of the matter said.
The source also said local estimates for the current crop stand at around 4.5 million tons, while consumption is expected to reach 12 million tons.
Currently, the United States Department of Agriculture is expecting wheat production to reach 15 million tons, down 10% year-on-year, but data for the US agency is difficult to gather amid an escalation in political tensions between the two countries in recent years.
However, with domestic demand put at 12 million tons, the gap needing to be covered by stocks and imports could stand at 7.5 million tons.
Analysis of line-up data and evidence from trade sources points to Russia already selling a huge volume of wheat to Iran this year, with available information suggesting up to 4 million tons have already been loaded out of Russian ports from July to September.
That comes alongside around 1 million tons of wheat sold to Iran from Germany for delivery in the 2021-22 marketing year.
During the last marketing year, Iran imported 1.5 million tons of wheat, according to custom’s data compared to USDA’s estimate of 2.2 million tons.
In the 2021-22 marketing year, USDA has increased Iran’s wheat imports to 2.5 million tons as the crop stands at 15 million tons, down only 10% year-on-year.