President Ebrahim Raeisi’s pledge to build one million residential properties annually is a unique opportunity for the revitalization of decaying urban areas of all Iranian metropolises, says Ali Beitollahi, the head of Engineering Seismology Department of Road, Housing and Urban Development Research Center, in a write-up for the Persian economic daily Donya-e-Eqtesad.
The translation of the full text follows:
The 13th government, led by President Raeisi, and greenlit by a majority of parliamentarians, has begun to work in earnest and with a new approach. One of the main promises of the new president, made with the aim of solving the housing issue is the construction of one million housing units annually. It will place a heavy responsibility on housing officials, the Ministry of Roads and Urban Development and its affiliated organizations.
The housing problem is more acute and pressing in Tehran and other large cities, where the cost of rent is higher and requires more specialized opinion.
Rent levels in Tehran, for example, are literally unsustainable.
On the other hand, the policy pursued by the government to solve housing shortage (by increasing supply) should not be adopted in a way that it eventually gives rise to the wave of migration and the influx of people to Tehran and its suburbs.
If not, many other problems, including traffic congestion, air pollution and limited infrastructures, will be added to the existing ones. The emptying of villages and small towns due to the migration of people to Tehran for employment and making a living must be prevented.
The new president’s pledge to build one million residential properties is a unique opportunity for the revitalization of slum areas of not only Tehran but also all other metropolises, large and relatively large cities (with a population of more than 200,000).
Urban slums are among the most vulnerable to earthquake. These neighborhoods have their own social, economic and cultural complexities which, on the one hand, have valuable urban roots and antiquity with cultural, architectural and social richness, and on the other, due to old age and instability, narrow passages and population density are very vulnerable to earthquakes and other hazards.
Slum Landscape
It is estimated that 21 million people live on 132,000 hectares of slum areas, which constitute 39% of the total urban population and 17% of urban area. Figures at the national level are significant and can determine the direction of urbanization policies.
Up to 62% of the slum areas in Tehran are used for residential purposes (dwelling or recreational purposes, or both) while passageways account for 23%. Urban slum areas constitute only 5% of the total area of Tehran, but 15% of the population of this city (about 1.2 million people) live in 260,000 buildings located in slums.
Urban slum is the common denominator of unstable, fine-grained and impermeable urban fabrics [used to describe the physical characteristics and texture of urban areas]; the area of unstable neighborhoods is 5,800 hectares, that of fine-grained is 5,000 hectares and the area of impermeable districts is 460 hectares. Districts 4, 22, 5, 21, 2 and 1 are the largest and districts 17 and 10 are the smallest urban districts of Tehran. The total area of urban slums is 3,270 hectares that are distributed in 4,989 blocks in different districts. There are slums in all 22 districts of Tehran, but their ratio is different. Districts 12 and 10 have the largest while districts 6 and 22 have the smallest area.
Considering the various areas of 22 districts in Tehran, the appropriate factor [to measure the vastness of slums] is the ratio of the area of slums to the total area of a district. As per this factor, there is a high percentage of slum density in districts 10, 12, 11 and 17 and the lowest density in districts 4 and 22.
Another important indicator that should be considered in the evaluation of urban slums is the size of blocks. Data show the area of each block in slums, but in general, you can present a suitable indicator for assessing the dimensions of slum blocks by dividing the total area of slums into the number of building blocks.
Districts 12, 10 and 11 have the highest density of slums and should be given priority in renovation programs. Also, the renovation of residential units in the northern areas of Tehran is of high priority, as these slums are located on fault lines.
Seismic Hazards
The promise of building one million homes per year throughout the country should be considered a unique opportunity. From the perspective of urban development, economics and construction management, there may be divergent opinions.
The controversial issue of government involvement in real-estate development might have its own flaws, but the truth is that in addition to the poor quality of life in most of the country’s slum areas, narrow passages and small housing units face the biggest risk of earthquake. According to Iran’s seismic hazard zoning map, 9% of the country’s area is considered a very high seismic hazard zone. Yet, 27% of the population live in this area. Up to 67% of the country’s area are also considered a high seismic hazard zone. The approximate length of active and seismic faults in Iran reaches about 40,000 km; you can hardly find an area in the country which is not prone to earthquakes.
On top of that, not many residential units have a decent quality of construction. The findings of National Population and Housing Census in the year ending March 2017 show that there are 23 million homes, of which 10 million lack metallic frames and are not quake-resistant; most of which are located in the slum areas of large cities.
By setting the main goal of face-lifting the slums and improving the quality of life and housing resilience in these areas, the government will increase the number of housing properties and prevent the overcrowding of large cities in one fell swoop. First, a significant number of housing will be built and a major part of the housing problem will be solved without burdening Tehran and other large cities with more people. The second point, which is of major importance to housing experts, is that the risks associated with natural disasters, their potential losses and urban vulnerability to earthquakes will significantly decline by employing this approach.
