Tehran Province's population is expected to reach 20 million in five years, while its namesake capital city ranks the 25th most populous city in the world, with an ever-increasing population.
“Between 200,000 and 250,000 people are added to Tehran Province's population each year,” Masoud Shafiei, the head of the Management and Planning Organization of Tehran Province, was quoted as saying by ILNA.
The rise in population includes migrants from other cities and villages, as well as foreign countries.
Latest data released by the Statistical Center of Iran show the population of the capital city increased by 6.6% over five years from the fiscal year ending March 2012 to the year ending March 2017.
SCI estimated that 8,693,706 people and 2,903,435 households lived in the capital city in the year ending March 2017. About 17.4% of its residents constituted those below 14 years, 74.1% between 15 and 64 years and 8.4% were 65 years and above.
The size of household reduced by 0.1 people to stand at three members per household in the year ending March 2017 compared with the year ending March 2012.
Of the total households, 84.2% (or 2,445,016 households) had male breadwinners and 15.8% (or 458,419 households) had female breadwinners, suggesting that one out of six families had women householders.
The relative frequency of households with women as the head has increased from 15.4% to 15.8% over the five years.
New migrants (those who moved to Tehran city from March 2012-17) accounted for 4.7% or 404,996 people of its population in the year ending March 2017.
The findings of the National Population and Housing Census also show 94.8% or 7,638,837 of people living in the capital city were literate and 5.1% or 414,162 were illiterate in the year ending March 2017.
Out of 2,888,713 households living in apartments or houses in the city, 1,432,136 (49.6%) were owners of their residential units and 1,208,710 households (41.8%) were renters.
About 87.4% of the residential units in the city were apartments and 12.7% were properties other than apartments.
Ensuing Challenges
The rapid population growth in Tehran Province has caused numerous problems.
One such problem has to do with water crisis facing the country for years now.
"Water consumption in Tehran Province broke the 50-year record in the summer of last Iranian year [ended March 20] due to the hot weather and the outbreak of coronavirus," the CEO of Tehran Province’s Water and Sewerage Organization was quoted as saying by Mehr News Agency.
In addition to water supplies, employment is also affected by population growth.
According to the Statistical Center of Iran, the unemployment rate in Tehran stood at 7% in the fourth quarter of last Iranian year (Dec. 21, 2020-March 20).
The SCI data on unemployment has been challenged by the research arm of the Iranian Parliament, which argues that by including the increasing number of people who have been laid off as a result of the closure of businesses following the outbreak of Covid-19, the true rate of joblessness would stand much higher.
Meeting the housing needs of the increasing population is also another challenge. It’s impossible for some families to buy a house at the current unaffordable prices.
Tehran Province’s housing Consumer Price Index in the 12-month period ending March 20, which marks the end of the 12th month of last Iranian year, increased by 78.2% compared with the corresponding period of last year, latest data released by the Statistical Center of Iran show.
SCI had put the average annual inflation rate for the preceding Iranian month, which ended on Feb. 18, at 75.4%.
The housing inflation for the month under review (Feb. 19-March 20) registered a year-on-year increase of 81.9% compared with the similar month of the previous Iranian year. The year-on-year inflation of the month ending Feb. 18 was 91.3%.
The housing CPI (using the Iranian month to April 19, 2016, as the base) stood at 689.9 for the month under review, indicating a 3.2% growth compared with the month before.
During the month ending Feb. 18, the housing CPI stood at 668.5, registering a 4.7% increase compared with the previous month.
Suburbanization
The rise in the population of Tehran Province has caused an increase in suburbanization. Bloating urban areas have forced some citizens to move to its suburban areas.
"About 23% of the suburban population of Iran live in Tehran Province," Tehran Governor General Anoushirvan Mohseni-Bandpei was quoted as saying by ISNA.
Residents of the capital city are increasingly migrating to suburban areas, according to Deputy Interior Minister Mehdi Jamalinejad.
"Unfortunately, we suffer from the so-called 'metropolitan inundation syndrome' as a result of mass migrations from villages to cities, and from smaller cities to metropolises," he said, adding that these migrations peaked in the first decade of 2000.
Citing data gathered in the last round of National Census in the fiscal 2016-17, the official said the city of Tehran is currently experiencing reverse migration.
The capital city has faced many challenges in recent years, including pollution and traffic to name a few. Due to its political, economic, educational and other advantages, the capital city has always attracted Iranians from other provinces.
Migration to the city of Tehran to work, study, or live temporarily or permanently has been the prevalent trend over the years, leading to growth in the city's population while giving rise to a series of environmental issues in the process. However, latest statistics show reverse migration, i.e., residents moving from the capital city to other provinces.
According to the Statistical Center of Iran, the findings of National Population and Housing Census in the fiscal 2016-17 show a total of 350,632 people migrated from the city of Tehran to other provinces during March 2011-17. The provinces of Alborz, Gilan and Mazandaran were the top destinations for migrants from the capital city.
A total of 516,922 people migrated to the city of Tehran during the same period. A majority came from Alborz, Lorestan, Hamedan and Khorasan Razavi provinces.
Tehran's population density is 969 per square kilometers, which is 20 times higher than the country’s average. With a population of about 13.26 million people (up from 8.15 million registered in the previous census conducted in 2011-12), the capital city has an over 16.5% share in Iran’s total population. The city is home to 41.9% of the country’s urban population, according to the latest census.
Although the number of people arriving in the capital city surpassed those who left the city during the period under review, reverse migration is seemingly on the rise amid growing environmental problems in the capital city and saturation of opportunities.
In fact, air pollution and a widespread fear of earthquake have been cited as the major reasons for people wanting to leave the city of Tehran.
