Despite the imposition of intensified trade restrictions to stem the rapid spread of Covid-19, some 90% of Iranian border crossings are currently open, a deputy head of Trade Promotion Organization of Iran said.
“Our exports are expected to reach $36 billion by the end of the current Iranian year [on March 20] to register a 10% decline compared with last year,” Mojtaba Mousavian was also quoted as saying by IRNA.
The official noted that although the novel coronavirus outbreak and heavy economic sanctions have impacted Iran’s trade, the country’s exports to Afghanistan, Iraq and China, which are among Iran’s main trading partners, are normalizing.
According to Mehdi Mirashrafi, the head of Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration, Iran’s non-oil foreign trade stood at 110 million tons worth $52 billion during the nine months ending Dec. 20.
Exports were at 85.2 million tons worth $25.1 billion and imports at 25 million tons worth $26.8 billion during the period.
Compared with the corresponding period of last year (March 21-Dec. 21, 2019), exports registered a 17% and 20% decline in weight and value respectively.
This is while imports registered a 1% and 16% decrease in weight and value year-on-year.
The main export destinations over the period included China with 20.6 million tons of non-oil goods imports from Iran worth $6.4 billion, Iraq with 20.8 million tons worth $5.9 billion, the UAE with 11.4 million tons worth $3.3 billion, Turkey with 5.4 million tons worth $1.8 billion and Afghanistan with 5.2 million tons worth $1.7 billion.
The main exporters to Iran were China with 2.6 million tons worth $7 billion, the UAE with 3.5 million tons worth $6.3 billion, Turkey with 3.5 million tons worth $3 billion, India with 1.8 million tons worth $1.6 billion and Germany with 911,000 tons of goods worth $1.3 billion.
A total of 5.2 million tons of cargo were transited across the country over the period, indicating a 10.9% decline YOY.
Iran’s foreign trade reached $7.4 billion in the month leading to Dec. 20.
According to a report by Persian economic daily Donya-e-Eqtesad, exports in the month under review hit 10.2 million tons worth $3.6 billion and imports reached 3.2 million tons worth $3.7 billion, indicating a trade deficit of $100 million.
Compared with the previous month, exports and imports marked a growth of 9% and 19.4% respectively. On a year-on-year basis, exports decreased by 26% but imports increased by 7.2%.
“Global trade has dropped by 30% following the outbreak of coronavirus—and Iran was no exception. Seven countries, including China, Iraq, Afghanistan, the UAE and India account for 75% of our foreign trade; over 50% of Iran’s non-oil exports are headed to Iraq and China, all indicative of our export vulnerability," Majid Reza Hariri, the chairman of Iran-China Chamber of Commerce, was quoted as saying recently.
“Natural gas, gas condensates, petrochemicals and unprocessed minerals make up 70% of Iran's exports. Covid-19 has pushed down the demand for and the prices of these exporting items. For our production lines to remain operational, about $45 billion worth of essential goods, pharmaceuticals and medical equipment need to be imported. Given the restrictions placed on oil sales, this figure appears inaccessible.”
Pedram Soltani, a member of Iran Chamber of Commerce, Industries, Mines and Agriculture’s board of directors, recently said Iran has to prepare for a 30% decline in export value in the current Iranian year (March 2010-21) compared with last year due to the impact of the viral pandemic on national and international trade.
“Under the current circumstances, it is estimated that the country’s exports will fall by $10-12 billion compared with last year. The main products that will experience a plunge due to the pandemic are petrochemicals, steel, mineral products, tiles, ceramics and nuts,” he was quoted as saying by ISNA.
Soltani further said China is most likely the least affected economy by the pandemic and since it is Iran’s top trading partner, hopefully exports to this country will not be affected.
“Yet, the outbreak of Covid-19 as well as the plunge in oil prices will make Iraq, our second biggest export destination, very cautious and we will be facing limitations on commodities we can export to the neighboring country,” he added.
Soltani noted that based on World Trade Organization’s prediction world trade will see a 13-32% plunge in 2020 (best- and worst-case scenarios), stressing that it is likely that the economic crisis awaiting the world now will be more intense than the one experienced in 2008.
