An economist has said that the actual economic growth figure for this spring is 8-10 percent lower than that of three years ago, in one of the first reactions to the latest report by the Central Bank of Iran on the economic recovery.
The actual growth rate for the first quarter of the current Iranian year (March-June) is not at all satisfactory compared to three years ago - a year before Iran’s economy fell into recession, Mohammad Mehdi Behkish said in his official webpage. “There is a long way to go to match the economic conditions of three years ago.”
“To calculate the growth rates based on fixed prices, the collected data from the first three months of this year should be converted based on the current market prices,” according to Behkish.
“Apparently, last year’s figures have been adjusted based on an inflation rate of above 40 percent, while production-related figures for this spring have been adjusted according to a 16 percent inflation,” he wrote, adding that “a 16 percent adjustment would obviously bring a much larger result than a 40 percent adjustment.”
“A GDP growth of more than 4 percent [for the period between March 21 and June 22] compared to the same period last year is a remarkable achievement for the government and especially for its economic team. But we need to bear in mind that these are initial figures, so we should wait for the final data to come out.
“Now the question is whether the figures used to calculate the production rate for the year ending in June truly carried the 16 percent growth on average so that a 16 percent adjustment rate can be applied to calculate the fixed figures comparable to last spring or data manipulation has resulted in a magnified growth of more than 4 percent- an allegation that stems from the fact that other economic indices such as employment haven’t had a relevant growth in the same period.”
