The goods and services Consumer Price Index registered a year-on-year increase of 39.6% in the 10th Iranian month Dey (Dec. 22, 2018-Jan. 20) compared with the similar month of last year, the Statistical Center of Iran reported.
SCI had put YOY inflation at 37.4% for the preceding month, Azar, which ended on Dec. 21.
The overall CPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 154.7 in Dey, indicating a 2% rise compared with the previous month.
The month-on-month inflation was put at 2.6% for the preceding month.
The average index in the 12-month period ending Jan. 20 increased by 20.6% compared with last year’s corresponding period.
SCI had put the average 12-month inflation rate for the preceding month of Azar at 18%.
The index registered a year-on-year increase of 39% for urban areas and 42.7% for rural areas compared with the similar month of last year.
SCI put the average 12-month inflation for urban and rural areas in Dey at 20.6% and 20.9% respectively.
The overall CPI reached 154.1 for urban households and 158.4 for rural households, indicating an increase of 2% for both urban and rural areas compared with the previous month.
Breakdown for Basket of Goods & Services
The highest inflation among 12 goods and services groups under SCI review in Dey was recorded for the "hotels and restaurants" group with a 3.7% rise compared with the month before. The "tobacco" group saw the month-on-month deflation of 3% in its prices.
The "tobacco" group registered the highest inflation year-on-year, as the "housing, water, electricity, natural gas and other fuels" and "education" posted the lowest CPI increase among the 12 groups of goods and services with 137.9% and 22.8%, respectively.
The average 12-month inflation rate for the "tobacco" group was the highest with 82.6% and that of "housing, water, electricity, natural gas and other fuels" and "health and treatment" group had the slowest rate of 14.2%.
Food & Beverages
The Consumer Price Index of "food and beverages" group (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 179.9 in Dey, indicating a 3% rise compared with the previous month.
The group's CPI registered a year-on-year increase of 56.1% compared with the similar month of last year.
The average index for the group in the 12-month period ending Jan. 20 increased by 26.8% compared with last year’s corresponding period.
The subgroup of "red meat and poultry" saw the highest month-on-month inflation of 10.8% while the lowest rate was registered for the "oils and fats" subgroup with a 0.6% increase compared with the preceding month.
The index registered an increase of 39% for urban areas and 42.7% for rural areas compared with the similar month of last year
As for year-on-year inflation, foods included in the "unclassified foods" subgroup saw the highest rate of 107.2% followed by "fish and shellfish" with 82.5% as the “bread and grains" subgroup experienced the lowest of 28.7%
Average 12-month inflation for foods included within the "unclassified foods" subgroup was put at 42.8%, the highest, followed by "fruits and nuts" with 38.6% while the CPI for "bread and grains" saw a 16.8% increase, the lowest subgroup within "food and beverages" in the 12-month period ending Jan. 20 compared with the corresponding period of last year.
SCI-CBI Tug-of-War
SCI published its inflationary reports along with the Central Bank of Iran. The two bodies have been engaged in a dispute lately as to which should be considered the official source of information.
CBI announced in December it would not publish its data, until further notice, on the Consumer Price Index for the Iranian month Azar (Nov. 22-Dec. 21) in order to improve collaboration with SCI and reduce discrepancies between the two sets of data.
Later on Jan. 8, the Specialized Commission of the Statistical High Council, affiliated to the Plan and Budget Organization of Iran (to which SCI is a subsidiary), announced that CBI does not have the mandate to produce and disclose statistics on price indexes and national accounts and must cease their publication to avoid duplicative and overlapping governmental assignments.
Mahmoud Cheloyan, CBI’s senior statistician, was quick to strongly oppose the SCI announcement, saying that the central regulator will continue to fulfill its constitutional duties to prepare and publish statistics of its own.
Javad Hosseinzadeh, the deputy head of SCI, said in only 3% of the countries across the world, the central banks are responsible for collecting and publishing statistical information.
Honduras, Paraguay, Monaco, Eritrea and Libya are among countries that don’t have statistical centers so their central banks have been tasked with compiling and releasing official statistics.
“The success or failure of a country’s central bank is contingent upon its performance regarding monetary policies and inflation statistics. The governors of central banks would be dismissed from their posts if they fail to achieve an expected inflation rate within a year or two. Obviously, the evaluation of their performance should not be based on the figures they produce,” he was quoted as saying by IRNA.
According to the official, the central bank does not take into account rural areas when calculating the Consumer Price Index.
“CBI only refers to 39 cities while the Statistical Center of Iran surveys 357 urban areas and 365 rural areas to measure consumer inflation rate,” Hosseinzadeh said.
CBI's latest inflation report showed the goods and services Consumer Price Index for urban areas for the eighth Iranian month ending Nov. 21 increased by 39.9% compared with the similar month of last year.
The overall CPI (using the Iranian year to March 2017 as the base year) stood at 153.6 for the month, indicating a 3.5% increase compared with the previous month. The average CPI in the 12 months ending Nov. 21 increased by 18.4% compared with last year’s corresponding period.
The inflation rate in Iran took an upward trajectory in the wake of devaluation of national currency after the US unilaterally pulled out of the 2015 nuclear deal Tehran signed with world powers in May 2018. Previously the rate remained in the single-digit territory for months.
