Europe’s failure to fulfill its commitments under the 2015 nuclear agreement will leave Iran with no choice but to abandon the deal, a foreign relations expert said.
“If Europeans, like Americans, refuse to carry out their obligations under JCPOA [the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or the official name of Iran's nuclear deal] and Iran cannot enjoy the economic benefits it seeks, there remains no option for it but to exit the accord,” Mohammad Baqer Khorramshad, secretary of Iran’s Strategic Council on Foreign Relations, said in an interview with Mehr News Agency.
The nuclear agreement reached between Iran and major world powers in 2015 was unilaterally scrapped in May by US President Donald Trump who immediately reimposed the sanctions lifted under the deal.
Other parties have remained in the pact with the European Union leading a campaign to salvage the deal by countering the effects of US sanctions on Tehran and safeguarding its economic interests.
Nevertheless, the EU’s promised financial mechanism, formally known as the Special Purpose Vehicle, aimed at keeping trade afloat with Iran despite US restrictions has faced a lengthy delay.
Europe was set to put the system legally in place by November, when oil sanctions were to take effect and operationalize it before the New Year, but has failed to deliver the goods.
In the latest comment in early December, the EU foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, told reporters only reluctantly that SPV is expected to be established “in the coming weeks … before the end of the year”.
Without reaping gains from the agreement, it would be pointless for Iran to remain committed and it is likely to exit. Iranian officials have repeatedly announced that EU’s time to set up the instrument will not be endless.
Looming Tensions
Khorramshad warned that Iran’s withdrawal from JCPOA would most likely increase tensions in the region.
“Under the circumstances, Iran would seek to meet its interests through other means and the US might also want to embark on new adventures in the region,” he said.
The result, according to him, would be greater insecurity that would have negative consequences for Europe, including the influx of refugees from different Middle East countries toward European states.
“The migrant crisis will bring multiple social, cultural and economic problems, which would certainly be unpleasant for any European government,” he said.
The foreign relations expert noted that the expansion of terrorist networks beyond the region and across Europe can be another serious danger arising from the spread of insecurity in the Middle East.
"In addition to the importance of maintaining political and economic relations with Iran, keeping JCPOA alive is a serious security issue for Europe because unlike the US, which is a long distance from this region, EU states are somewhat neighbors," he added.
“For the sake of their own security, Europeans would want to protect Iran’s interests under the agreement.”
This, according to Khorramshad, could be the reason why Germany and France, as leaders of the EU, are doing all in their power to activate the financial mechanism to save JCPOA and continue cooperation with Iran.
France and Germany have offered to take joint responsibility for the trade mechanism.
