The absence of a well-defined approach toward relations with Saudi Arabia on the part of Iran could compel the kingdom to drift further away from Tehran and exploit circumstances to secure its own interests, an expert warned.
Tensions have escalated between Iran and its neighbor since 2015 when King Salman became the ruler of Saudi Arabia and opted for hostile policies against Iran.
The two countries eventually broke off diplomatic relations in 2016, following attacks on Saudi missions in Iran, and conditions took a turn for the worse with the appointment of Mohammad bin Salman (MBS) as crown prince in 2017.
Conflicts also involve a range of regional policies, including support for opposing factions in Arab countries. In Yemen, for instance, MBS leads a military intervention against the Iran-backed Houthi movement.
Today, however, bilateral ties are not merely dominated by mutual domestic and regional concerns, but intervening factors have emerged and grown to be more influential, according to Saber Golanbari, Middle East affairs analyst, who wrote for the Iranian Diplomacy website.
Menacing State of Play
“At present, two variables of the United States and Israel have a significant role in shaping Tehran-Riyadh relations,” he said, describing the state of play as dangerous for Iran.
He explained that MBS is relying on Israel and the US to hang on to power, a constraint that imposes requirements on Riyadh.
According to the expert, one obligation would be to help accelerate the process of normalizing ties between Tel Aviv and Persian Gulf Arab states.
“The more Israel manipulates Persian Gulf Arab states, the dimmer the prospects of easing relations between Tehran and Riyadh,” he said.
"Active and serious collaboration in the American-Israeli confrontation with Iran would be another requirement."
After pulling the US out of the 2015 nuclear deal with Iran in May, US President Donald Trump reimposed sanctions on Tehran, which include the oil sector, the lifeblood of Iran’s economy.
To make up for the shortfall of Iranian oil in the market and prevent a price hike, other producers need to increase their output, which Saudi Arabia has willingly agreed to do to win Washington’s favor.
Golanbari warned that against the backdrop of Iran’s inaction, Israel and the US will be able to direct the state of affairs toward their desired path.
“The result would definitely be catastrophic for the region,” he cautioned.
He emphasized that if there is a will in Iran to take control of its relations with Saudi Arabia, it should be performed by adopting wise and appropriate methods, and avoiding contradictory signals and messages to the other side.
Riyadh’s power has declined following the assassination of prominent Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi and the western pressure to end the Yemen war.
According to Mohammad Javad Abtahi, a lawmaker, this weakened position is an opportunity for Iran to win concessions.
“The diplomatic apparatus should seize this opportunity and approach Saudi Arabia for negotiations,” he said in an interview with ICANA.
