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World Economy

IMF Raises South Africa Growth Forecast

The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for economic growth in South Africa, saying the end of the worst drought in more than a century will lift agricultural production and rising commodity prices will boost the mining sector.

The Washington-based lender forecast growth of 1% for Africa’s most-industrialized economy in 2017, up from the 0.8% prediction it made in April,  Bloomberg reported.

Consumer inflation rate would probably fall below the 6% upper limit of the Reserve Bank’s target band in the second half of this year, it said in a statement after a so-called Article IV visit by officials from May 3 to May 16.

“Following last year’s near-stagnation, there are signs that a modest improvement in the pace of economic growth is under way,” Paolo Mauro, who led the IMF team, said in the statement. However, he warned: “The pace of recovery this year and the next is unlikely to prevent a further increase in unemployment and a continued decline in per capita incomes.”

Mining production surged 15.5% year on year in March, beating analysts’ estimates and compared with growth of 4.6% in February. Manufacturing output rebounded in March from a decline the previous month. The economy grew 0.3% last year, the slowest since a 2009 recession.

The government faced a dual challenge of stimulating growth while making the economy more inclusive, the IMF said. That would require reforms of the labor market as well as state-owned companies, it said.