Iran’s economy grew by 3.3% in the first three quarters of the current fiscal year (March 21-Dec. 21, 2022) compared with the preceding year’s corresponding period, the Statistical Center of Iran said in a new report.
The report added that excluding crude oil production, the growth rate stood at 2.9%.
A breakup of economic sectors by SCI shows the “industries and mines” and “services” groups registered 5.3% and 2.6% growth respectively, while “agriculture” contracted by 4.3%.
The “industries and mines” group has five sub-categories of “crude oil extraction”, “mines”, “industry”, “energy” and “construction”, which registered a growth of 5.6%, 0.9%, 5.1%, 9.5% and -2.2%.
SCI earlier put last Iranian year’s (March 2021-22) growth at 4.3%, saying GDP saw a 3.5% rise without taking crude oil production into account and the sectors of agriculture, industries and services experienced a growth of -3.7%, 6% and 4.5% respectively.
According to the Central Bank of Iran, the economy grew by 4.4% in the fiscal 2021-22. It said the GDP growth stood at 3.9%, excluding crude oil. And that the “services”, “oil and gas”, “industries and mines”, and “agriculture” groups saw a respective growth rate of 6.5%, 10.1%, 1.1% and -2.6%.
According to CBI, Iran’s gross domestic product in the fiscal 2020-21 saw a 3.6% growth. Economic growth, excluding oil, expanded by 2.5%.
According to SCI, the year’s GDP expanded by 0.7% compared with the year before.
Economic growth, excluding crude oil, saw an economic growth of near zero, SCI reported.
Discrepancies were also seen in SCI and CBI reports on Iran's economic growth in the fiscal 2019-20.
According to SCI, the Iranian economy experienced a -7% contraction in the fiscal 2019-20. The GDP shrank by -0.6%, without taking oil production into account.
This is while CBI put the fiscal 2019-20 growth at -6.5%. Excluding the oil sector, growth was put at 1.1%.
Iran's gross domestic product shrank by 4.9% in the fiscal 2018-19 compared to the year before, according to SCI. The center put that year's growth, without taking oil production into account, at -2.4%.
CBI did not release any report on the fiscal 2018-19 economic growth.
Iran’s economy emerged from recession in the fiscal 2014-15 with a 3% growth after two years of recession when the economy contracted 5.8% and 1.9% back to back, according to the Central Bank of Iran.
Growth in 2015-16 has been put at -1.6% by CBI and 0.9% by SCI.
CBI has put 2016-17 growth at 12.5% while SCI says it was much lower and near 8.3%.
World Bank’s Iran Forecast
In a report released in January, the World Bank has forecast Iran’s economic growth to slow down in the years to come.
“In the Islamic Republic of Iran, growth in FY2023/24 has been revised down by 0.5 percentage point, to 2.2%, on account of slower growth in key trading partners and new export competition from discounted Russian oil. Domestic demand is also likely to be curbed by the effects of high inflation on real incomes, which is expected to average 44% in FY2023/24. Growth is projected to slow further, to 1.9%, in FY2024/25,” reads the World Bank’s January 2023 edition of flagship Global Economic Prospects report.
The report estimates that Iran’s real GDP growth at market prices will stand at 2.9% in the fiscal 2022-23, down from 4.7% in the previous year.
Output in Iran is boosted in 2022 by “the waning of the pandemic and higher oil prices. Growth is expected to slow subsequently, however, as unresolved structural challenges and feeble fixed investment limit the country’s growth potential,” read part of the June edition of Global Economic Prospects report.
