The new sanctions that the United States has imposed on Tehran may be a symbolic gesture but can cause pessimism in the course of talks on the revival of the 2015 nuclear deal and undermine the required goodwill, an expert said.
“If [the imposition of] sanctions continues, the outcome of negotiations will not be favorable,” Diako Hosseini, a senior strategic affairs scholar, said in an interview with ISNA.
Talks in the Austrian capital Vienna aim to restore the 2015 deal, known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, which offered sanctions relief to Iran in return for curbs on its nuclear activity.
The JCPOA has been unraveling since the US pulled out and reimposed sweeping sanctions on Tehran in 2018.
The negotiations have not reached a definite outcome after more than a year and half and are lingering over political decisions that Tehran says must be made in Washington.
The US, meanwhile, has been introducing new sanctions, including recent bans targeting oil companies that do business with Iran.
Hosseini said the US government seems to be no longer interested in rejoining the JCPOA and is using the upcoming Senate elections (Nov. 8) as a pretext.
The possible deal to be reached now is nothing like the “longer and stronger” agreement that US President Joe Biden had promised during his campaign, which could be a means of pressure against Democrats, he explained.
“The heavy pressure by the anti-JCPOA lobby in Washington against Biden has reduced his interest in a deal,” he said.
Biden had vowed to extend the scope and time frame of the JCPOA after rejoining the original deal, but has so far failed to go near such ambitions.
It is now blaming Iran for making demands that go beyond the purview of the JCPOA.
A US State Department spokesman has said recently that if Iran continues to adopt positions that the US and its European allies cannot accept, then everything would continue as it is, meaning the precise and strict implementation of sanctions and further international isolation for Iran.
Tehran says it has responded to the latest initiative, proposed by the European Union coordinator, in a constructive manner and awaits US decisions now.
Iran demands guarantees for lasting removal of sanctions and continued US compliance with the JCPOA under a new government.
It also wants the conclusion of investigations by the International Atomic Energy Agency about nuclear material that have been allegedly found at undeclared sites in Iran.
Iranian officials argue that the case is based on fabricated data and are meant to be used against the country in the future in the event that a deal is signed on JCPOA.
Noteworthy Option
Nevertheless, it is important for both sides to conclude the talks as soon as possible, because the passage of time is in neither’s interest, according to the expert.
With every day of delay, parties approach the US presidential elections where Republicans stand a chance of winning, in which case, it is not clear how much the future US government would adhere to the result of these negotiations, he said.
Hosseini said he still thinks the JCPOA among other options is the best way to remove sanctions against Iran and give assurance about Tehran’s nuclear programs to the other sides.
“In fact, the JCPOA is still a noteworthy option, although its economic benefits for Iran may have decreased compared to the past,” he said.
Iran will fulfill its obligations if the other party returns to the deal in an acceptable way, he added.
“However, even if its benefits decrease, it does not mean an agreement is of no value.”
