Iran’s GDP grows by 3.8% in the first quarter of the current fiscal year (started March 21) compared with the corresponding period of last year, the Statistical Center of Iran said in its latest report.
Without taking crude oil production into account, economic growth stood at 4.3%, the report added.
According to SCI, the agriculture sector contracted by 0.8% in Q1 as the “industries and mines” and “services” grew by 4.2% and 3.9% respectively.
The center earlier put fiscal 2021-22 growth at 4.3%, saying GDP saw a 3.5% rise without taking crude oil production into account and that the sectors of agriculture, industries and services experienced a -3.7%, 6% and 4.5% growth respectively.
The Central Bank of Iran also reports Iran’ economic growth, although the numbers it came up with are slightly different from those of SCI.
According to the bank, the economy grew by 4.4% in the fiscal 2020-21. It said GDP growth stood at 3.9% excluding crude oil production. And that the “services”, “oil and gas”, “industries and mines” and “agriculture” groups saw respective growth rates of 6.5%, 10.1%, 1.1% and -2.6%.
World Bank, IMF Forecasts
The World Bank expects Iran’s economy to grow by 3.7% in 2022.
“Output in the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2022, boosted by the waning of the pandemic and higher oil prices. Growth is expected to slow subsequently, however, as unresolved structural challenges and feeble fixed investment limit the country’s growth potential,” reads part of the group’s flagship World Economic Prospects report published for June.
Forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have been put at 2.7% and 2.3% respectively.
According to World Bank, Iran’s GDP growth stood at -6.8%, 3.4% and 4.1% in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively.
This is while, the International Monetary Fund is expecting Iran’s economy to grow by 3% in 2022. In its World Economic Outlook report titled “War Sets Back Global Recovery”, the IMF said the economy expanded by 4% in 2021.
Predictions for 2023 and 2027 are at 2%.
IMF has put Iran’s 2014-20 GDP growth at 5%, -1.4%, 8.8%, 2.8%, -2.3%, -1.3% and 1.8% respectively, while its 2004-13 average was 2.5%.
CBI, SCI Discrepancies
According to CBI, Iran’s gross domestic product in the fiscal 2020-21 registered 3.6% growth. Economic growth, excluding oil, expanded by 2.5%.
According to SCI, the year’s GDP expanded by 0.7% compared with the year before and economic growth, excluding oil, was near zero.
Discrepancies were also seen in SCI and CBI reports on Iran's economic growth in the fiscal 2019-20.
SCI said the Iranian economy experienced a -7% contraction in the fiscal 2019-20, but GDP shrank by -0.6%, excluding oil production.
This is while CBI put fiscal 2019-20 growth at -6.5% and placed growth at 1.1%, excluding the oil sector,.
Iran's gross domestic product shrank by 4.9% in the fiscal 2018-19 compared to the year before, according to SCI. It put that year's growth without oil production at -2.4%.
The CBI did not release any report on the fiscal 2018-19 economic growth rate.
Iran’s economy emerged from recession in the fiscal 2014-15 with a 3% growth after two years of recession when the economy contracted by 5.8% and 1.9% back to back, according to the Central Bank of Iran.
Growth in 2015-16 has been put at -1.6% by CBI and 0.9% by SCI.
The CBI has put 2016-17 growth at 12.5% while SCI says it was much lower and near 8.3%.
