The Iranian economy grew by 5.7% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2021-22 at constant prices of fiscal 2016-17, data released by the Central Bank of Iran show.
The GDP growth, excluding crude oil production, stood at 6.3%, the bank says, adding that the growth rate in the three groups of oil, agriculture, industries and mines stood at 0.2%, -3.4% and 5%, respectively.
Notably, the construction sector registered an 11.9% rise in gross domestic product.
GDP in Q1-3 stood at 4.8%, 1% and 6.7% respectively, and economic growth averaged 4.4% in the fiscal 2020-21, according to CBI.
The annual GDP growth stood at 3.9% without taking crude oil production into account.
The “services”, “oil and gas”, “industries and mines”, and “agriculture” groups saw a respective growth rate of 6.5%, 10.1%, 1.1% and -2.6%.
The CBI report came after the Statistical Center of Iran put fiscal 2021-22 growth at 4.3%.
According to SCI, GDP saw a 3.5% rise excluding oil production.
The sectors of agriculture, industries and services experienced -3.7%, 6% and 4.5% growth respectively, SCI said.
The World Bank recently said it expects Iran’s economy to grow 3.7% in 2022.
“Output in the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2022, boosted by the waning of the pandemic and higher oil prices. Growth is expected to slow subsequently, however, as unresolved structural challenges and feeble fixed investment limit the country’s growth potential,” reads part of the group’s flagship World Economic Prospects report published for June.
Forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have been put at 2.7% and 2.3% respectively.
According to the World Bank, Iran’s GDP growth stood at -6.8%, 3.4% and 4.1% in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively.
The International Monetary Fund is expecting Iran’s economy to grow by 3% in 2022.
In a new World Economic Outlook report titled “War Sets Back Global Recovery”, IMF said the economy expanded by 4% in 2021.
Predictions for 2023 and 2027 are at 2%.
IMF has put Iran’s 2014-20 GDP growth at 5%, -1.4%, 8.8%, 2.8%, -2.3%, -1.3%, and 1.8% respectively with 2004-13 average at 2.5%.
CBI-SCI Discrepancy
According to CBI, Iran’s gross domestic product in the fiscal 2020-21 saw 3.6% growth. Economic growth, excluding oil, expanded by 2.5%.
According to SCI, the year’s GDP grew by 0.7% compared with the previous year.
Economic growth, excluding oil, saw an economic growth of near zero.
Discrepancies were also seen in SCI and CBI reports on Iran's economic growth in the fiscal 2019-20.
According to SCI, the Iranian economy experienced a -7% contraction in the fiscal 2019-20.
According to the center, the GDP shrank by -0.6%, excluding oil production. This is while CBI put fiscal 2019-20 growth at -6.5%. Excluding the oil sector, growth was put at 1.1%.
Iran's gross domestic product shrank by 4.9% in the fiscal 2018-19 compared to the year before, according to SCI. It put that year's growth without taking oil production into account at -2.4%.
The CBI did not release any report on fiscal 2018-19 economic growth.
Iran’s economy emerged from recession in the fiscal 2014-15 with a 3% growth after two years of recession when the economy contracted 5.8% and 1.9% back to back, according to the Central Bank of Iran.
Growth in 2015-16 has been put at -1.6% by CBI and 0.9% by SCI.
The CBI has put 2016-17 growth at 12.5% while SCI says it was much lower and near 8.3%.
