A total of 57.8 million tons of agronomic products are estimated to have been harvested from more than 12 million hectares across the country in the last crop year (September 2020-21), according to the latest figures released by the Statistical Center of Iran.
Based on SCI data, wheat was cultivated on 6.6 million hectares during the period and yields amounted to around 10.4 million tons. This indicates some 56% of the land under the cultivation of agronomic products and 18% of the overall yields pertained to wheat.
Estimates show that in the current crop year, land under wheat cultivation will decline to 6.5 million hectares.
Based on the SCI report, land under rice and barley cultivation are expected to decrease by 12.3% and 4.3% respectively YOY.
Land under saffron and sugarcane cultivation will increase by 2.2% and 5.3% YOY.
FAO Forecasts
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations expects Iran’s wheat production to increase to 13 million tons in 2022 from an estimated 9 million tons in 2021, to register more than 44% rise.
In its biannual report on global food markets, FAO put the 2019-20 average production of wheat in Iran at 14.3 million tons.
Because of the projected rise in production, imports are forecast to decline from 7.9 million tons to 3.4 million tons.
The 2018-19 to 2020-21 average import has been put at 1.6 million tons.
Wheat consumption is forecast to slightly increase to 16.4 million tons in 2022-23 from 16.2 million tons in 2021-22.
The 2018-19 to 2020-21 average consumption has been put at 15.8 million tons.
According to FAO, Iran’s wheat stocks in the year to 2023 is forecast to decline to 6.9 million tons from an estimated 7 million tons in 2022. The average stocks during the 2019-20 period has been put at 6.4 million tons.
Per capita wheat consumption is forecast to slightly increase to 169.7 kilograms per year in 2022-23 from an estimated 169.4 kilograms per year in 2021-22.
The 2018-19 to 2020-21 average per capita has been put at 168.7 kilograms per year.
Global wheat markets are embarking on the 2022-23 season with a great deal of uncertainty. The impacts of the ongoing war in Ukraine, trade policy changes in several countries and high international prices will shape much of the wheat market outlook.
International wheat prices
are at levels not reached since 2008, following a season of tight global availability due to reduced harvests in some major exporting countries and export suspensions by others, including Ukraine (a major exporter) and India (an emerging exporter), along with supply concerns for 2022-23 also adding pressure.
$22.84b Worth of Imports in 3 Decades
Over the past 30 years (March 1992-22), Iran has imported 96.48 million tons of wheat worth $22.84 billion, according to the spokesperson of the Islamic Republic of Iran Customs Administration.
“The highest volumes were imported in the fiscal 2014-15 with 7.43 million tons, 2021-22 with 7.07 million tons and 2001-2 with 6.77 million tons,” Rouhollah Latifi was also quoted as saying by ILNA.
The spokesman said the lowest wheat import figure pertains to the fiscal 2018-19 with only 360 tons.
During the same year, he added, wheat price was the highest in the 30-year review with close to $0.70 for each kilogram while the fiscal 1994-95 saw the lowest import prices for the grain at nearly $0.10 per kilo.
