The economy grew by 4.4% in the fiscal 2020-21, said the Central Bank of Iran in a new report published on Friday.
The CBI report added that GDP growth stood at 3.9%, excluding crude oil production.
“Services”, “oil and gas”, “industries and mines” and “agriculture” saw a respective growth rate of 6.5%, 10.1%, 1.1% and -2.6%.
The report noted that in the fourth quarter of last fiscal year (Dec. 22, 2021-March 20), GDP rose by 5.7% compared with the preceding year’s corresponding period.
Excluding oil production, the economy grew by 6.3% in Q4.
The CBI report came two days after the Statistical Center of Iran put the fiscal 2021-22 growth at 4.3%.
According to SCI, GDP saw a 3.5% rise without taking crude oil production into account.
The sectors of agriculture, industries and services experienced -3.7%, 6% and 4.5% growth respectively, the center said.
The World Bank recently said it expects Iran’s economy to grow 3.7% in 2022.
“Output in the Islamic Republic of Iran is expected to grow by 3.7% in 2022, boosted by the waning of the pandemic and higher oil prices. Growth is expected to slow subsequently, however, as unresolved structural challenges and feeble fixed investment limit the country’s growth potential,” reads part of the group’s flagship World Economic Prospects report published for June.
Forecasts for 2023 and 2024 have been put at 2.7% and 2.3% respectively.
According to the World Bank, Iran’s GDP growth stood at -6.8%, 3.4% and 4.1% in 2019, 2020 and 2021 respectively.
The International Monetary Fund is expecting Iran’s economy to grow by 3% in 2022.
In a new World Economic Outlook report titled “War Sets Back Global Recovery”, IMF says the economy expanded by 4% in 2021.
Predictions for 2023 and 2027 are at 2%.
IMF has put Iran’s 2014-20 GDP growth at 5%, -1.4%, 8.8%, 2.8%, -2.3%, -1.3%, and 1.8% respectively with the 2004-13 average at 2.5%.
CBI-SCI Discrepancy
According to CBI, Iran’s gross domestic product in the fiscal 2020-21 saw 3.6% growth while economic growth, excluding oil, expanded by 2.5%.
According to SCI, the year’s GDP expanded by 0.7% compared with the year before.
Economic growth, excluding oil, saw an economic growth of near zero, SCI reported.
Discrepancies were also seen in SCI and CBI reports on Iran's economic growth in the fiscal 2019-20.
According to SCI, the Iranian economy experienced a -7% contraction in the fiscal 2019-20.
According to the center, GDP shrank by -0.6%, without taking oil production into account.
This is while CBI put fiscal 2019-20 growth at -6.5% which, excluding oil, was put at 1.1%.
Iran's gross domestic product shrank by 4.9% in the fiscal 2018-19 compared to the year before, according to SCI.
The center put that year's growth, without taking oil production into account, at -2.4%.
CBI did not release any report on the fiscal 2018-19 economic growth.
Iran’s economy emerged from recession in the fiscal 2014-15 with a 3% growth after two years of recession when the economy contracted 5.8% and 1.9% back to back, according to the Central Bank of Iran.
Growth in 2015-16 has been put at -1.6% by CBI and 0.9% by SCI.
CBI has put 2016-17 growth at 12.5% while SCI says it was much lower and near 8.3%.
