The National Iranian Gas Company's output stood near 260 billion cubic meters in 2020.
As per data released by the state-run NIGC (a subsidiary of the National Iranian Oil Company), of the total production, households and thermal power plants accounted for the lion’s share of consumption at around 130 bcm and 80 bcm, respectively.
The rest was used by industries (20 bcm) and petrochemical companies (20 bcm). Ten bcm was exported to Turkey and Iraq.
The company has projected 65% growth to reach 430 bcm in 2040, which is indeed commendable. However, demand for gas is expected to surpass 500 bcm by that time.
By 2040 annual demand for gas from electricity producers is forecast at around 210 bcm and households at 190 bcm.
Likewise, petrochemical factories and other industries will reportedly need 90 bcm in the next two decades -- up 125% compared to 2020.
In the best case scenario and even if gas export does not increase and remains at 10 bcm, demand will exceed supply by a whopping 70 bcm come 2040.
The massive deficit is the equivalent of gas produced in 10 phases of the giant South Pars Gas Field in the Persian Gulf in a year.
What is making the rounds in economic and political corridors is the undeniable truth that so long as demand is not controlled and reduced, boosting production of gas or other forms of energy will not solve the burgeoning problem of high consumption and waste.
One measure crucial for managing the rising energy demand is investment in energy efficiency plans -- a core issue pushed on the periphery in countries like Iran due to lack of vision and responsible policymaking.
Energy efficiency is simply defined as utilizing less energy to perform the same task – meaning eliminating waste.
Energy efficiency brings a variety of benefits like reducing greenhouse gas emissions, cutting imports and lowering costs for households and the economy at large.
While renewable energy technology can help accomplish some of the goals, improving energy efficiency is and will be the best and cheapest way to cut use of fossil fuels including natural gas. There are enormous opportunities for efficiency improvement in all economic sectors be it buildings, transportation, industries, or power plants.
Hidden Fuel
NIGC officials including the managing director Hassan Montazer Torbati say improving energy efficiency in buildings and power plants can help save 200 bcm of gas a year. That is why energy efficiency is also known as “hidden fuel” or “first fuel”.
Energy efficiency is not just a question of technology. It is more a question of attitude, intelligent thinking, governance and cost-effective solutions.
Such solutions exist and can be adopted without much hassles. In other words, improved efficiency means it is possible to provide more comfort while consuming less energy.
One example is the building sector accounting for approximately one-third of global energy use and is expected to comprise 26% of all future energy efficiency savings, primarily related to space heating and cooling, lighting and appliances.
In the fast growing towers in Turkey, Brazil and South Korea significant reductions in energy consumption and Co2 emissions have been achieved with the orderly implementation of energy efficient solutions. The same can and must be in Iran.
Changes to existing buildings can be made to reduce energy use and costs. These may include small steps, such as choosing LED light bulbs and energy efficient appliances, or larger efforts such as upgrading insulation and weatherization.
Another example is CHP (combined heat and power) systems which capture the "waste" heat from power plants and use it to provide heating, cooling, and/or hot water to nearby buildings and facilities.
This increases the energy efficiency of power generation from 30% to 80%. Smart grids too improve the efficiency rates in power generation, distribution, and consumption but there has been very little investment in such systems in Iran.
It is regrettable that unlike renewables that have gained traction in Iran, energy efficiency is still far behind.
According to Fatih Birol, executive director at the International Energy Agency, energy efficiency must set the baseline for all analysis in all aspects of energy policy. The world must embrace the IEA’s analysis about the importance of energy efficiency improvements to meet long-term climate goals.
Energy efficiency cannot be an afterthought. It has to be upfront and center. Energy efficiency is not an end in itself. It is a means to the end of a sustainable future for all.
The bottom line is that energy efficiency should be at the top of to-do lists of governments striving for decent and sustainable development. Not only do energy efficiency measures provide affordable energy and access, and are an important tool to improve productivity and competitiveness, but also are likely to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the long-term.
