Iran’s foreign trade slipped in value but expanded in volume during the first eight months of the Iranian calendar year (March–November 2025), highlighting a widening gap between physical shipments and their economic return.
New Customs Administration data show total trade reached 131.05 million tons worth $76.54 billion, reflecting a 9.38% decline in value while volume rose 1.53% compared with the same period last year.
Exports totaled 105.23 million tons valued at $36.99 billion, marking a 1.17% rise in volume but a 3.48% drop in value. Imports grew 3% in weight to 25.82 million tons but fell sharply in value—down 14.29% to $39.54 billion—mainly due to lower gold purchases this year.
The divergence between rising volumes and falling export earnings signals an accelerating shift toward raw-material shipments, a trend economists link to worsening energy shortages in industrial and mining sectors.
With factories frequently operating below capacity due to fuel and electricity constraints, many producers have turned to exporting iron ore concentrate, pellets and other unprocessed materials that require less energy to prepare.
Industry data support this trend. According to the Iranian Steel Producers Association, exports of iron ore concentrate jumped 82% in the first seven months of the current Iranian year versus the previous year.
Steelmakers warn that excessive raw-material exports risk tightening domestic supply and raising input costs for downstream producers, weakening the sector’s long-term competitiveness.
Analysts say the broader pattern reflects structural challenges: limited foreign engagement, persistent energy imbalances, and underinvestment in value-added manufacturing.
As Iran sells more low-value bulk materials, the economy forfeits opportunities in higher-margin finished goods—an issue that becomes more pressing as global commodity prices soften.
While overall trade levels remain high, the shift toward bulk exports underscores the need for stable energy planning and industrial policy capable of supporting value creation.
Without corrective measures, economists warn that Iran may continue drifting toward a supplier role in global raw-materials markets, reducing economic diversification and diminishing export resilience.
