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Lula’s Chosen Heir Jumps in Latest Brazil Presidential Poll

Lula’s Chosen Heir Jumps in Latest Brazil Presidential PollLula’s Chosen Heir Jumps in Latest Brazil Presidential Poll

Leftist presidential candidate Fernando Haddad jumped in the first Datafolha opinion poll published since he officially replaced ex-president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva as the Workers’ Party candidate on Tuesday.

In the poll published on Friday evening Haddad rose to 13% of vote intentions, up from 9% in the last poll conducted on Sept. 10. Far-right ex-Army captain Jair Bolsonaro led the survey with 26% of votes, up from 24%: a move within the margin of error. Former Ceara state governor Ciro Gomes’ vote intentions remained stable, at 13%. Both market-favorite Geraldo Alckmin and environmentalist Marina Silva lost support, with Alckmin down 1 percentage point and Silva down by three, Bloomberg reported.

The survey captures voter sentiment at the end of another turbulent week in the race for the presidency during which Bolsonaro underwent another emergency surgery following his stabbing last week by a fanatic at a campaign rally.

The Workers’ Party also started releasing their first TV and radio adverts presenting Haddad as its candidate, running the slogan “Haddad is Lula.” Brazilian assets have dropped and the currency has hovered near a record low in recent days on concerns that the winner of October’s contest would balk at implementing crucial belt-tightening measures.

 Second Round Scenarios

Investors are paying increasing attention to poll scenarios for a runoff, which will happen if no candidate obtains a majority of valid votes in the first round. The Datafolha poll showed Bolsonaro would trail Gomes, Silva and Alckmin in any second round, while Haddad and Bolsonaro are in a technical tie, with the Workers’ Party candidate on 40% and the former paratrooper on 41%.

Bolsonaro’s rejection rating rose to 44% from 43%, the highest among all candidates, while Haddad’s also increased to 26% from 22%.

Bolsonaro’s son, Flavio, told a Rio de Janeiro radio station this week that his father is in no shape for campaigning before the first-round vote, and that he will need more surgery in two months to reconstruct his intestine.

Brazil’s first round election will take place on Oct. 7 and a runoff, if necessary, will be held on Oct. 28. Datafolha poll surveyed 2,820 people on Sept. 13-14 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

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