Iran's Parliamentary Think Tank Revises Up GDP Growth to 4.6%

The research arm of the parliament has revised upward its estimates of economic growth for the current fiscal year (March 2017-18) from the previous 4.1% to 4.6%. 

According to Majlis Research Center, the two sectors of transportation services (8%) and general services (11%) will register the biggest growth, thanks to the boost in foreign trade and overseas flights. 

The parliamentary think tank expects the agriculture sector to expand by 3.8%, the oil sector by 3.1%, the industrial sector by 4.6% and the services sector by 5.9%. It expects the construction sector to shrink by 2.4%.

Earlier, the center forecast a 3% economic growth for the next fiscal year (March 2018-19).

The latest official data on Iran’s economic growth were published by the Statistical Center of Iran late last year. 

According to the SCI report, Iran’s economy grew by 5.6% in the first half of the current fiscal (March 21-Sept. 22) compared with last year’s corresponding period. The H1 growth was put at 6%, exclusive of oil.

Agricultural production expanded by 0.9% while the industrial sector (comprising crude oil, natural gas and other mineral extractions, industrial production, energy and construction) grew by 4.4%. The services sector saw the highest growth of 7.2% during the period.

IMF expects Iran’s real GDP growth to reach 4.2% in 2017-18, projecting it to be sustained or even rise toward 4.5% over the medium-term.

The World Bank, in its latest “Iran’s Economic Outlook” report, estimated a 3.6% GDP growth at constant market prices and 3.5% at constant factor prices for the Iranian economy in 2017. Its estimates for 2018 and 2019 are at 4% and 4.3% at constant market prices and 3.9% and 4.1% at constant factor prices respectively.

And the United Nations, in its World Economic Situation Prospects, had forecast a 5.3% economic growth for Iran in 2017, noting that the growth is projected to settle at 5.1% and 5% over the next two years respectively.