As the 10th quarterly report by the International Atomic Energy Agency, which was released last week, once again showed that Iran remained compliant with its commitments under the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action on its nuclear program, US President Donald Trump, willing to appease certain foreign clients and domestic pressure groups, is currently attempting to unilaterally alter provisions of a concluded deal, by threatening other parties to "either fix it or the United States will withdraw." This clearly puts the US in a state of anticipatory repudiation and entitles others to utilize measures and mechanisms to safeguard the deal from US harm.
The fact that Iran and P5+1 (the United States, Russia, China, France, Britain, and Germany) could actually reach a conclusion in the form of the JCPOA after more than a decade of tough negotiations, was to a certain extent due to a change of attitude and approach by some negotiating parties, including and foremost the United States.
The United States only presented itself as a significant negotiating party when it could depart from traditional attitudes and give due regard to the realities on the ground.
The long-term complex negotiations probably caused the US to depart from its unproductive zero-sum solutions to collaborate for a win-win outcome.
Balanced Agreement
This shift of approach, led to the conclusion of negotiations in a form that all negotiating parties sensed a degree of balance and rationality. Nevertheless, the real tryout of any agreement is indicated in its method of implementation. For the JCPOA, the notions of 'good faith' and 'constructive atmosphere' have been incorporated as two main pillars of the implementation of commitments in the deal. Preserving the agreed equilibrium that was reached in the deal is crucial to maintaining the accord and avoiding another unnecessary and complex problem.
However, while Iran is holding up its end of the deal, as the IAEA report verifies, the US seems to have been working hard to undermine it. Its measures to subvert the deal can be categorized as follows:
1. Creation of a toxic atmosphere over the deal's implementation
Although the JCPOA requires senior government officials of the parties to make every effort, including in their public statements, to support the successful implementation of the deal, the US president not only has seized each and every possible opportunity to disparage the deal, but also, through politicizing and twisting the facts, has caused growing uncertainty over it. For instance, despite repeated reports issued by the UN nuclear agency confirming that Iran is implementing its commitment under the deal, Trump chose whimsically to decertify Iran's compliance last October and just recently US Vice President Mike Pence stated that Washington would no longer certify it.
2. Partial implementation of commitments
The US administration has also failed to fully abide by its obligations under the deal. By simultaneous designation of individuals and entities as targets for penalties while waiving sanctions, the US adds a bitter flavor every time that it delivers minimalist overdue (e.g. cumbersome licensing of aircraft sales) implementation of its obligations, which adversely affects realization of benefits of the deal for Iran.
3. Efforts to alter the provisions of the deal
In his latest push, the US president asked for alteration in certain provisions of the deal and threatened that if his irrelevant unilateral wishes were not met, he would withdraw from the deal.
The conditions that he has stated are either already existing in the deal or irrelevant to its nature.
For instance, two of Trump's conditions stipulate that he wants to "ensure that Iran never even comes close to possessing a nuclear weapon" and "unlike the nuclear deal, these provisions must have no expiration date."
He should be reminded that what he apparently seeks already exists in the deal. The first paragraph of the preface to the pact states, "Iran reaffirms that under no circumstances will Iran ever seek, develop, or acquire any nuclear weapons" and there is no sunset in this clause.
By the above-mentioned means, Trump is turning a blind eye to achievements of constructive multilateral diplomacy. Yet disregarding the amount of energy and effort that all JCPOA participants put into the negotiations to secure the deal and attempting to alter its terms will unsettle the balance of the deal and lead to its total demise, making it absurd to talk about any new negotiated equilibrium for the foreseeable future.
"Ironically, almond oil may cause dryness, and water may feed the flames," as a Persian poem reads. Trump's squeaky wheel of JCPOA implementation may not get the grease in this case.
Mahmoud Movahed
